Bush can't opt out ... the GOP fundraising machine is actually starting to run dry at some level. He can't go back to K street, he can't go back to the small business donors who maxed out to him. What's more, in the last 3 months of the campaign candidate time is far and away the most important resource.

I have been worried about this issue ever since I realised the significance of the convention calendars. Bush can keep spending his raised money through the end of August, and then take the $75 million. Kerry needs to make the $75 million last from tomorrow night through the election. That big gap between the conventions is surely not accidental. Were the system really fair the limit would kick in for all parties that qualify at the same time. In this case either now for both, or after the GOP conference for both. Of have I missed something here. It really seems like there is something just wrong with this picture.

It is distressing to be discussing opting out of public financing as a strategy -- when, as I understand it, public financing is our one small hope of lessening the impact of fundraising in all of our national campaigns in the long-term.

I don't trust the Bush guys, but hope that the public funding will make it possible for Kerry to side with the angels on this one.

3) they weren't worried about Bush opting out because the Bush people had told these Kerry guys that they would not do this.

And bushco always does what it says it's going to do, right? This is troubling.

Come on, Trippi mismanaged Dean's campaign so badly I would not listen to him no matter what. He has not won a race since when ? Trippi has been involved in some ugly losses just like Bob Shrum. In fact, I think Trippi made himself into a rich man by ignoring facts which could have helped Dean. Trippi only thinks of himself and money.

Come on, Trippi mismanaged Dean's campaign so badly I would not listen to him no matter what.

In the final analysis, it was Trippi's good sense to have Dean opt out of public financing that allowed Kerry to follow as well. Whether or not he wins any campaigns, when it comes to fundraising, he's not exactly an idiot.

it's not like the 527s are just gonna sit on their hands

The 527's won't be sitting on their hands, true, but the rules are diffent post-convention. Attacks will be more restricted, as well as any form of direct support.

I don't know how it is with more neutral stuff like GOTV, but don't expect too much help from the 527's.

Is it true that they can't spend money raised up until today after today? Or do they just have to stop taking money today?

Does money really translated into votes though? Bush spent $80 million trying to smear kerry, and while more people say Kerry is more likely to change his mind on an issue than bush, Bush hasnt gone up in the polls. Kerry spent $60 mill on bio ads. While his favoribility ratings have gone up, he hasnt surge ahead in the polls or anything. Dean broke records when he raised $40 million in a quarter, and he was sunk after Iowa, even though the loyal Deaniacs kept sending him more money. Im not saying $$ isnt important for a campaign, but I have feeling outside events will play a significant factor, b/c they seem to have all year.

From all accounts, the electorate is more solid in their voting preferences now, this early in the race, than they have been in many years. Most people have already decided to either ride the Bush Wagon down to the bottom or dump him. The undecideds will be decided, IMHO, by events between now and Nov., not by tv ads. The best use of funds now would be to aim at
Nader's % and try to get 2% of them. Right now, if you want to believe the polls, Nader is again killing the Dem candidate. Now, I realize that he won't even make it to the final ballot in many states (one is too many) but it is the public perception that matters here. If Kerry could grab 2-3% of the 4-5% Naderites, it may be enough to shove him over the 50% mark in polls and that would be a significant factor in reeling in the other undecideds.

The most disturbing thing is the mind-boggling suggestion that the Kerry people believed the Bush people! That's virtually insane naivete. Look, if you just make the assumption that what you hear from the Bush people is wrong, you can ignore everything else in the world, bury your head, and be right about what's going on 99% of the time. Just that one assumption. Whatever they say, negate it, and that's reality--99%. Why in Sam Hill would they believe them! Congenital liars who would make Machiavelli winch when it comes to politics--and the Kerry people are making decisions based on what they say! Insert Dean scream.

don't fret. the 2000 election was the last one to be driven primarily by TV presence. as T says, this one does not hinge on ad buys but on events and the kitchen table. we don't have any control over events, and the Bushies don't have nearly as much control as they think they do. I submit that we do have quite a bit of control over the kitchen table -- far more than one might think from reading the papers or watching the talking heads.

the thing that I find genuinely troubling about this is not Trippi's scenario but the fact that Kerry staffers told you that "they weren't worried about Bush opting out because the Bush people had told these Kerry guys that they would not do this."

that's really disturbing. I can only hope they were they just shining you on, because if somebody in the Kerry campaign is actually taking the Bush campaign at its word, the problem is not that Kerry needs to opt out of public financing, it's that he needs (again) to fire some people. yes, even at this late date... other than being an idiot or a mole, there is no excuse whatsoever for assuming that Bushies keep their promises.

sheesh, come on and stop the incessant second guessing. What makes you think that a. the "Kerry staffer" knew what (s)he was talking about, and b. was telling the whole story?

I think we have ample evidence that the Kerry campaign does not take the Bushites at face value (remember "the most crooked lying bunch" for starters). The thing that has impressed me about this campaign is that Kerry & co really seem to know what they are doing, and when. Well, tonight will show if it lasts...