I'd like to believe you, but what is the breakdown when limited to likely voters? Isn't it possible self-declared Repugs vote more reliably than Demos? In that case, the Gallup sampling could be more accurate than a simply breakdown by party.

Michael Moore, who is a traitor, says that the polls are all messed up because they're not talking to enough young people, who are disproportionately cell-phone users and, presumably, not Republican. An interesting theory. A far more interesting theory is that Joe Lockhart is on a secret mission to sabotage the Kerry campaign to help set the stage for Hillary in 2008. What do you think?

Well, the military must be full of traitors now according to Toby-F 9/11 has become the most popular film with the servicemen and women in Iraq.

I live in Wisconsin, have all my life. And I just cannot see (1) a 6-point advantage for Republicans over Democrats on Election Day, (2) Bush winning this state.

It is true that Gore only won WI in 2000 by 5,000 some votes. But I just see so much more activity among the usual Dem apparatus, and among the progressive bunch in Madison. If the educated youth are to have an effect, they can. You just never can tell with them as to whether they'll vote. I think we're going to see at least some increase in the 18-24 group. In the University of Wisconsin System alone, there are over 150,000 students at 23 campuses. Not to mention Marquette and the other private colleges.

In a sort of backwards pull toward the polls, the much respected Sen. Russ Feingold is up for re-election. And people who are just burned out by the whole presidential election coverage may still end up in that booth to vote for Feingold. And maybe some will check all Democrat, or vote for Kerry while they're there. Hey, I'm an optimist. Wisconsin voted for Dukakis.

I wouldn't bet the farm on Kerry winning the presidency, but I'd bet it all on Kerry winning Wisconsin.

Toby, you really, really, REALLY need to let go of the Hillary fixation. She's just not all that, man.

On the matter of the polls, I think, when looking at all of them (thanks to Pollkatz) that it becomes fairly obvious Bush has a lead, and the trend for him is on the way down in the short-term. Long-term, between now and November, is not so much too close to call as it is dependent on foreign influence. If Bush pulls a rabbit out of his hat, like Russian or French troops for Iraq, then he could win. If Iraq continues like it is, which I think is what will happen, then he loses. Americans don't like presidents who lose wars. If Kerry wants to get higher in the polls, all he has to do is say he'll win in Iraq and catch Osama in a pithy, repeatable sound bite.

As for what's wrong with the Gallup polls, I think you hit the nail on the head, Steve. I don't believe in young voters -- when have they ever shown up? -- and most people who have cell phones also have land lines. Plus, their flawed data -- too many Republicans in the sample -- is right there in the fine print of the poll. They're saying, Look, here's the weak spot in the poll! Too many Republicans! It's screamingly obvious this is what is wrong with their poll and that this makes the data flawed. Good catch, Steve.

Michael Moore, who is a traitor

Assertion without proof. Ah, typical Hive mind.

Gallup is going to pick the 'undecided' voters who will question candidates during presidential debate 2. Can they be trusted?

rasin, no.

Brian, I don't know what your problem is with me. Is it because I put my money where my mouth is? Is it because of the fact that I, when challenged to "go fight in Iraq" by liberal Democrats like yourself, joined our nations armed forces and requested to be sent to Iraq ASAP?

I've earned my right to criticize. I'm a G.I. now. Can you say the same?

Steve, the comment prior to mine is a hoax. What a [surprise].

I've earned my right to criticize. I'm a G.I. now. Can you say the same?

We've been through this before, you coward sack of shit. Post the papers.

On the Wisconsin thing:

I called my buddy at Corporate ACC. He got a kick out of the numbers I recited in Wisconsin. He outright told me not to bet any market swings on Gallup or Harris. Their latest numbers in WI indicate:

Kerry 49.92

Bush 42.24

Other 2.02

They claim their heuristics are tight enough to keep error to +- less than 2 pp point.

My apologies for defaming the sack.

Some polling outfit hired by GOP probably by Rove did a pushed-poll last month and the results were Bush ahead by 4 point.

The just happened to call a Democratic activist in WI, he reported it. If Bush is wining WI by 8points, he would be winning IA, PA, NM by 5 points. Ain't happening.

It's all in the sampling. Kerry has Iowa by barely a point. Don't bet the farm on PA and NM!

You pitiful fools.Allah(swt) does not care who is "president" of the great satan, it is land which belongs only to mighty Allah(swt) Himself.
He(swt) has ordained it, the islamic caliphate is the future of His(swt) world.The islamic umma is already regaining the holy lands of islam across what the infidels have dubbed "Europe", land which belongs only to most merciful Allah(swt), but first the zionist invaders and the kufar oppressing muslims in the holy land, and warring against Allah(swt) must be removed from His(swt) divine path.
Those of your morals have are already showing your desire to become muslims, you rebel against those which war against Allah(swt), and condemn the evil zionists, who do not belong on the islamic holy land, and must perish.
Your desire has been revealed.Join islam, join the war against the oppressing infidels, the future will be much more merciful on you, and paradise awaits all those who help vanquish the enemies of Allah(swt).If you are not one of us then you too are the kafir (enemy) and are angering Allah(swt).
You have nothing to fear , convert now and you will not be harmed when the brave Muhajin come to your lands and claim back what so rightfully belongs to Allah(swt).It has been ordained you cannot win, defeat is the destiny of all infidels, and divine victory that of the islamic umma.Join us turn against your infidel neighbours, there are even now 1.3billion of us, that number rises each day as more see the light and convert, it will save you much suffering if you convert now. As we speak brave Muhajin are working to regain the divine caliphate on His(swt) lands stolen by the Great Satan you call "america".Already your northern neighbours are becoming islamic, soon yours will too when our numbers overwhelm you. More muslims are among you now than everand every one of us is working to acheive His(swt) caliphate, and carrying out their jihad to maximum effect.We are converting your children (as are our children).
The future of the Great Satan is an islamic one where we will all live under His(swt) law, the Shariah law.
Your Grandchildren will be muslim.

yes

All polls are suspect its not always who they poll either but in the phrasing of the question. The only one that will count will be conducted on the 2nd of November 2004.

Recent Polls

National Polls:
IBD/TIPP: Bush 45, Kerry 42, Nader 2
Battleground:Bush 49, Kerry 45, Nader 1
Battleground:Bush 46, Kerry 39, Nader 1
Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 43, Nader 1
CBS/NYT: Bush 50, Kerry 41, Nader 3
Gallup: Bush 54, Kerry 40, Nader 3
Rasmussen (9/21): Bush 48, Kerry 46
State Polls:
OH: Univ of Cincinnati: Bush +11
NJ: Quinnipiac: Bush 48, Kerry 48
MI: Two New Polls: Kerry +6, Kerry +4
PA: Mason-Dixon: Kerry 45, Bush 44
IA Mason-Dixon: Bush 48, Kerry 42
OR: Mason-Dixon: Bush 47, Kerry 43

Oh my God, Reza. What a hoot! I thought you were prevented from using all forms of alcohol until you went to paradise?

It would be a mistake to think your soliloquy has any basis in fact or power to appeal to us. You severely underestimate our resolve if you so do.

Good day, sir.