The debate, the debate and the debate.
First, what will Kerry do this week to try to set up the frame before the date? Does the release of the TV ad "Despicable" give us a clue as to at least one point that Kerry will attempt to hammer in this debate?
I sure wish he would. In his debate with Bush, Clinton said that attacks on his patriotism were similar to the red-baiting tactics by McCarthy. Clinton said Bush's father "stood up" to McCarthy. Looking directly at Bush, Clinton said, "Your father was right to stand up to Joe McCarthy and you were wrong to attack my patriotism." That was a good one. Kerry has set Bush up for this by asking him several times to denounce these attacks, Bush refused. Kerry could make him pay for it.
Second, what is Bush's game going in? Although the Bush/Rove team are widely praised/reviled as evil, wily, geniuses, they have not really come up with anything that looks or sounds like the product of genius. They have a two strategies: Kerry is weak, indecisive and unpatriotic; and everything Bush has done has worked out well.
The first strategy is one that any idiot would choose. Indeed, it seems that every idiot, every loudmouth at the end of the bar, uses this attack when they meet an argument that they cannot counter. The second strategy is so at odds with reality that it is doubtful it will hold with anyone but the Hopelessly Committed. Since the debates are not for or about the HC's, it may be that Bush will have to go beyond his claim that everything is coming up rose.
I am guessing that he will not admit any mistakes, he will not back down from any decision. Instead, he will fall into a self-pitying "I saw a problem and I took it on. If things didn't work out, well my heart was in the right place." This would be a repetition of his self-portrayal in 2000, "My heart is right."
Anyone have other thoughts?
Posted by James E. Powell at September 27, 2004 01:41 AMI recommend:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200407/fallows
It's a good analysis of the debaters and their skills in the medium.
George W. Bush will stick to his talking points. He will return to them at every opportunity, and will not be diverted from them. Tying them to asked questions is not a priority.
His talking points will be:
1. The Iraqi people were oppressed, now our 'brave soldiers' have freed them.
2. Democratizing a formerly tyrannical, highly secular regime takes time, and 'hard work.'
3. It would be folly to 'abandon' Iraq, or for that matter to even provide a timetable for starting troop reductions. To do so gives hope to thhe enemy.
4. The transitional government will be elected in January. Those who say it won't said the power transfer to the interim government couldn't happen in June - they were wrong.
5. The war in Iraq has made america safer, because Saddam was a 'sponsor of terror' and because there were terrorist operations in Iraq before 9/11.
Remember, if Kerry says anything that contradicts these positions, Bush only needs to say 'I respectfully disagree with the senator' and then return to his talking points.
Unless the moderators have the backbone to tell a sitting president ''Sir, I'm sorry but you didn't answer the question,' don't expect too much in terms of substance from these debates.
Fortunately, as the article listed above discusses, that's ok. All people need to see is that Kerry has the bearing and personal charisma of a man they can trust to run the country, there are enough out there looking for an alternative to Bush that he'll be elected.
He will deliver.
Posted by forethought at September 27, 2004 03:03 AMThank you forethought for the above post. I'd like to add an extra about Presdential bearing. If Jerk leans on the podium as he does always, like he's such a SLOB, that'll turn off many friends of mine who are SO embarrassed by his lack of gentlemanly demeanor! Kerry is REGAL, and can speak well. Who wants to place bets on how many people in the USA will be watching?
Posted by BushHater at September 27, 2004 04:14 AMAs for the debates, excellent idea and comments. I think Kerry has to strike a balance between being forceful but not appearing disrespectful. That of course is at odds with what I would really like Kerry to do which is to hammer away at Bush and show the disgust/contempt I have with Bush's failed policies and ideology. However, I am not the person who Kerry is trying to attract to vote for him.
Another topic I found interesting.
This article in yesterday's Globe regarding GOP/Bushco's attempt to coerce Catholics against voting for Kerry. To me this is a very maddening and disconcerting thing. They even have sponsored a website! All this does to this struggling Catholic is to cause me to turn further and further away from the church. I am upset the heirarchy is allowing Junior to abuse their name and faith in this manner.
Posted by emal at September 27, 2004 04:57 AMAll people need to see is that Kerry has the bearing and personal charisma of a man they can trust to run the country, there are enough out there looking for an alternative to Bush that he'll be elected.
Exactly, Kerry just needs to sell himself. He should go after the president, but he shouldnt be too mean about. A couple of zingers that kind of get at Bush w/o coming off too harsh would be good.
Well, debates they are not. These are heavily scripted media sound-bites. Gone are the days when you will actually see one of these guys think on their feet. There will be no surprises.
Posted by phidipides at September 27, 2004 08:55 AMSomething to watch in the Thursday debate: Bush has a bad habit of getting real nervous eye movement when he has to talk off the script. He looks like a liar, because he usually is lying. Now, I'll admit that he is usually lying, on script or off, but if somehow he backs into a line of questioning he can't remember, he'll look real uncomfortable. Notice how he stalls for time in the debates...until he remembers the talking point he has been coached to repeat. He'll say " yeah, uh, yeah, I've got it, yeah" or something to that effect.. count the number of times he stammers or stalls to let his brain catch up to the pre-programmed talking point. If he has to think fast, and if he's a bit off guard, he'll start to look like an idiot.
Posted by T2 at September 27, 2004 10:32 AMT2, I agree, unless Cheney is talking into his earpiece and feeding him the responses.
Posted by Judith at September 27, 2004 03:21 PM