This is an example of Gallup's part in suppressing the vote. If it is advertised that Bush is up by 8, the convential wisdom would be why bother to vote if the margin is that large.

It is part of the vast right wing conspiracy (seriously).

Keep pushing. GET OUT THE VOTE.

We can ignore Gallup all we want - it's the people who are not going to vote because of what they're reading that we need to worry about.

How can we stop this?

Don't forget that bloggers, commenters, and trolls are in no position to understand how the [unwashed masses] are looking at this election. It may just be that the only people freaking out over these polls are people like us ---people who are thinking and writing about this stuff way too much.

But I'm not freaking out. I am confident that the electorate will do the right thing and re-elect the President.

"But I'm not freaking out. I am confident that the electorate will do the right thing and re-elect the President."

Bush is not getting over 50 percent in except in the Republican biased Gallup poll. With undecideds breaking for Kerry, he will win. I'm surprised that Bush thinks Kerry can be a left-wing ideologue and a flip flopper at the same time. Bush has no coherent argument for why he derserves another four years. He became President by cheating and now he will be duly retired.

Kerry has a 10 percentage point in 13 battleground states!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aaJ9eWsOepd4&refer=us

"Battlegrounds

The Post reported its poll shows Kerry leading 53 percent to 43 percent in 13 battleground states, which the newspaper didn't define.

The state results are important because the winning candidate must gain majorities in enough states to collect at least 270 Electoral College votes in the Nov. 2 election. The electoral votes are apportioned among states based on congressional representation. The electoral tally, not the nationwide popular vote, determines the election.

A review of state polls by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Utah, with 178 electoral votes. Kerry, 60, leads in 11 states, including New York and Illinois, with 164 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 196 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Florida, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error."

Trust me, you CAN NOT believe the gallup poll. The exit numbers from 2000 were 39%-dem versus 34% repugnant. There is nothing at all to indicate a 10 percent shift in voter id as suggested by the gallup poll and absolutely nothing to suggest that any dem would shift to bush. I have looked at all the polling data and it would suggest about a one point margin of victory for kerry. This is just another cheap political trick to dissuade voters from overturnig this corrupt regime. Get out the vote! I agree completely with the other posters.

If I remember correctly, Gore was behind Bush by 6% in the polls, and won the election (of course, what happened after that is the greasest mess in all American history!). The polls aren't accurate anymore, because times are changing, and their methods aren't changing along with it - they poll people wih landline telephones. It's become a "roll-of-the-dice" as far as accuracy: maybe they're right, maybe they're not. I certainly wouldn't let polls, and the voting choices of a few hundred people, keep me from voting for who I wanted. No one should cheat themselves with that kind of thinking.

This is Ratfuck Rove trying to suppress the "too lazy to vote" swing voters.

If the polls show a big C-plus Augustus lead, the lazy-asses will stay home.

Remember guys, Toby has a streak of supporting losers!

Hey Doug's numbers are using the registered voter results not the likely voter results...SO it actually represents changing a 3-point bush lead into a 2 point kerry lead. A 5 point swing not a 10 point swing.

New and first time voters tend to favor John Kerry.

In 2004 , The breakdown will be
40% Democrats
35% Republicans
25% Independents

Lets say if Kerry gets 85% of the Democratic votes and 10% of the Republican votes and 48% of the Independent votes.
R(35*.10)= 3.5
I(25*.46)= 11.5
Kerry should recieve at least 49% of the popular vote

Bush should get 90% of the Republican votes, 10% of the Democratic votes, and 41% of the Independent votes.

Bush= R(35*.9)= 31.5
D(40*.1)= 4
I(25*.41)= 10.25

Bush should get 45.75% of the popular vote.

Nader should recieve 6% of the Independent votes.

Kerry-Edwards(D)= 49.%

Lets say if Kerry gets 90% of the Democratic votes and 10% of the Republican votes. and 47% of the Independent votes.

Kerry-Edwards(D) d=(90*.4)=36
r=(10*.35)=3.5
i=(47*.25)=11.75

Kerry-Edwards(D) should get 51.25% of the national popular vote.

George W. Bush will get 90% of the Republican Votes, 10% of the Democratic votes and 47% of the independent votes.
BUsh-Cheney=(R) r= (90*.35)= 31.5
d= (10*.4)= 4
i= (47*.25)= 11.75

Kerry-Edwards(D) 51%
Bush-Cheney(R) 47%
Posted by Neal Patel at October 18, 2004 03:46 PM

I think 51-47 is slightly too much. I figured it out with Zogby having 7% undecideds and I think Kerry will get 49.5-50.0% and Bush will get 47.0-47.5%. Nader and Co. will get 3%.

I think 51-47 is slightly too much. I figured it out with Zogby having 7% undecideds and I think Kerry will get 49.5-50.0% and Bush will get 47.0-47.5%. Nader and Co. will get 3%.