You can go on and on about the 4MM white, racist, evangelicals that turned out to elect GWB but the facts are that if a total of 22K people had switched their votes in NV, NM and Iowa, Kerry would be president elect and that's giving GWB Ohio.

What mandate, 22k votes??

Iowa

GWB - 746L
Kerry - 733K

So if out of the total people who voted for GWG, if 7K had switched their vote at the last minute, Kerry wins Iowa.

New Mexico

GWB - 371K
Kerry - 362K

If 5K switched their vote for GWB Kerry wins NM.

Nevada

GWB - 415K
Kerry - 393K

If 10K had switched Kerry wins NV.

So that is a total of 22K GWB voters. If they had voted for Kerry, he would have picked up 22 electoral votes and would be President elect.

Sure it was close in terms of EV- but I do think there is an issue when the margin of victory goes from 500k in our favor, to 3.5 million in the Republicans favor. Even if Kerry was elected, I don't think losing the popular vote by 3.5 million and a stronger Republican congress is going in a good direction. Personally, I would contend it is a more widespread appeal that gave Bush 4 million more popular votes (not just those rural evangelicals). For example in 2000 Gore won NJ by 16 points. This time it was 6- still a blue state, but not by that much.

I have my doubts about John Edwards. People say we need a Southern Democrat to run, but I think a lot of people don't find him to be genuine. I think people see him as John Kerry with a southern accent.

Co-opt them?
Suppress their vote?

There is an other option. Re-visit states rights. Blue states live 'blue' and red states live 'red'...

I am not saying allow them to build a total theocracy or bring back Jim Crow... But have the feds enforce only the most very basic federal oversight on fundemental civil rights. Then let the states go at it on the margins. It will be messy and there will be cross state jurisdictional squabbles... but I think we can preserve a 'blue lifestyle preserve' if we do that... and I fear this is the best we can hope for in the near term.

I do not prefer this solution but truly fear we will see nationwide reversals on all fronts if we don't build a firewall and fast.

At one time this was THEIR compromise they offered to the left... let us live 'our way'... things like 10 Commandments on Courthouse lawns that had been there (and ignored) for a 100 years. But we had the momentum then and we 'rejected' it for the most part... Now they have the momentum and are itching to turn the tables. It may be too late for this now...

Regardless if you love or hate it... it is a third strategy that may work

I think you need to do your calculation over again mlhm5. The three states you mention only have 17 electoral votes. Kerry currently has 252. 252 + 17 = the dreaded 269 which we all know means Bush wins. It would have gone to the House where each state is allocated one vote, and the Republicans have an overwhelming advantage in state delegations. DC gets fucked in this scenario.

Listen, I wanted to win badly too. But we always knew we had to have 2 out of the big 3(PA-OH-FL) just like last time. We may have actually won Ohio like Gore won Florida last time. I put nothing past them. They stole it once, they probably stole it again.

Edwards was not his own man. No VP candidate ever is. He will be a good candidate next time, and will probably never accept a VP nod again, and make that known when he decides. NO disrespect to Kerry, but both Dean (Take Back America) and Edwards (Two Americas) had a distinct messages and we definitely need that next time. I'm not counting him in, but don't count him out. Let's not eat any of our own, especially Kerry. Let's support them all.

The defining characteristic of this group is their lack of independent thought. They have been raised or have learned to blindly follow some form of authority, and the things leading them are based more on emotion than reason. They 'feel' something rather than think.

To get their vote we must have competing media. 24-7 in the farm to market radio markets and our own 24-7 cable outlet. We must match and exceed the message that the like of Rush the Lush and Faux news gets out.

It is not misleading to put our argument in their simple language. It's the only way they'll understand what we are talking about.

Just pay Alan Keyes to run. That should siphon off enough right-wing fundies.

Digby has a great post about this morals issues over at his site.

End result is that democrats should embrace the idea (even though analysis shows otherwise) and frame it so that

Radical extreme conservative religious fundamentalists are now running the country.

Republican Party = Radical conservative religious fundamentalists/extremists.

Associate the words republican, conservative with radical/extremists religious fundamentalists. Make the word conservative as dirty as repugs have made the word liberal.

It appears Democrats still dont' understand the 'rules of the game'.

There once was a man named Lee Atwater, or as he was commonly known - "the Darth Vader of the Republican party". This is Rove's mentor, even from the grave. The 'ditry tricks' Lee pioneered during the Nixon era are Rove's bread and butter today - we're hearing and seeing EXACTLY what Lee would've said and done, if still alive and kicking in the GOP.

Unless and until the Democrats either (a) delvelop a STRONG apparatus to CONSTANTLY counter the dirt coming from the Right, or (b) implement the same tactics - there is NO hope for further presidential elections, none whatsoever.

I realize that relying on 'dirty tricks' runs counter to the very difinition of a 'Liberal', but just like otherwise peaceful nations must occasionally take up arms and fight like demons, so must any progressive wishing to enter this political battlefield.

The Republicans intend to NEVER lose power in DC again, and given the lame 'opposition' we're seeing from the Left, that scenario is entirely possible.

Keep in mind, at least 40% of those who voted for Bush do NOT support the theocratic agenda of the evangelicals.

The Republicans have managed to perform a neat balancing trick. On the one hand they keep the theocrats happy by letting them write the party platform and by throwing them the occasional bone. On the other hand, they can't let them have too much of their agenda otherwise they lose the non-theocrats.

Here's the kicker: all those non-theocrats vote Republican but assume (implicity or otherwise) that the Democratic minority will keep the theocrats in check. If they actually thought that homosexuality would be outlawed, that evolution would be banned from schools, that the doctrine of church/state separation would end and the ten commandments made part of constituional law, that abortion would be banned and doctors who performed abortions executed, etc. -- they would switch their votes to the Democrats.

Somehow, someway, the Democrats have to make the next election a national referendum on the theocratic agenda of the Republican party. Break their coalition in two.

The hyper-conservatives are looking for payback for all of their efforts in getting the current Repubs in, and they want that payback - - NOW. Here's some suggested reading for you. It only serves to confirm just where things are headed at this moment, and it's not good for those of us either center or left of center.

Via Salon.com:

Get ready for the "revolution" on the right

Direct-mail ace Richard Viguerie is ecstatic over Bush's victory, but says it's time for conservatives to stop pandering to moderates.

- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Mary Jacoby

Linked text

Yuval,

You're right that the first strategy, the Dean secular/rational economic appeal - will not get us ANY substantial inroads in the marginal states.....exactly because values/culture trumps economics. It always does, and this election proves it to me more so than I thought before.

Would it trump economics in a truly awful economy, like the early 80s (we're not there yet)? Maybe not, but we can't rely on external circumstances like that.

be very careful in "talking down" to the evangelicals. I voted Kerry-Edwards, am disappointed by the outcome, but as a Christian I can't help but be offended by this post on a gut level.

Don't marginalize a large Christian base to Red Stater's driving pick up trucks with confederate flags. Just because we're Christian, doesn't mean we're racist knuckle draggers.

The most natural coalition for the Democratic Party is moderate Catholics. Forget the evangelicals. Kerry won the moderate Catholic vote in the battle ground midwest states (MO was -1), which was remarkable given how hard the Catholic Right and Bishops came at him. In NM he won it 63%, NV (52%).

Moderate Catholics are naturally left of center and even though Catholics are only 20% of the population, they were 27% of the electorate, that's almost a third of the electorate.

The reason Kerry did not get more of the vote is the perception that the party is too extreme on abortion. And note, 80% of Catholics ARE pro-choice, so there is no reason to lose that vote. The party is going to have to moderate the message of choice so that it resonates with the majority and they'll pick up millions of Catholic votes.

Christian Dem,

I'm not talking down to anyone. In fact, I have nothing but respect for progressive Christians like yourself. But the unavoidable reality is that in the Red States, the vast majority of evangelical voters are motivated by reactionary goals such as the prohibition of abortion and criminalization of homosexuality. I currently go to law school in a conservative part of a Red State, and I see this around me every day-- in the local newspaper and on bumper-stickers. It's a bitter pill to swallow for both secular liberals and progressive Christians, but it simply cannot be avoided or wished away.

Good post. I don't think we should waste our energy trying to change the far right - it is the middle right we need to bring over. While Utah may be a lost cause, there are several of the southern / middle Red states that we should not just give up on.

This may be fine in the short term, but the harsh reality is that there simply aren't enough Southern moderates like Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and John Edwards in the Democratic party--they are a rare (and dying) breed.

We should not just give up on the south - we should not let that 'breed' die.

christian democrat, I am a Christian independent.

I am not talking down to any Christian. You see I am madder than heck that my faith and Christianity (has been questioned) and has been hijacked by intolerant, racist, radical, extremist, conservative Christians. Just as probably any moderate Muslim is probably madder than heck that the conservative radical OBL has severely tarnished those who practice the Muslim faith.

I want my country back, I also want my Christianity back. You know the country and faith that was built on freedom of religious practice and choice, separation of church and state, and tolerance, acceptance, compassion and caring for all members of our society, especially those who are the weakest and the less fortunate among us.

I have a recommendation for all of you. There is a document that was recently adopted as a position paper by the National Association of Evangelicals. While it does affirm the importance of fighting gay marriage and abortion, it also lists a number of other issues which are important to the left, and on which the Republican party is weak. Thinks like racial justice, justice for the poor, peace, and protecting the environment.

I really recommend that everyone at least look at this document. It will give you a much better understanding of where the evangelicals are coming from, and of issues where we can find common ground with them. Also, remember that there are moderate and progressive Evangelicals, people like Jim Wallis. I did a Google search for 'evangelical social justice' which turned up all sorts of interesting things. Don't just think that you can dismiss these people as stupid, clueless, or unreachable. Think positive.

There must be a way for us to turn 'pro-life' fervor into recognising the importance of alleviating poverty and ensuring proper nutrition, housing, and education for children once they are born. Wouldn't it be great to get them to start asking the Republican party why they seem indifferent to the health and welfare of babies and children?

I think something terribly went wrong in Ohio vote count.. Simple math shows the truth...

Total number of votes for presidential candidates in ohio is 5,481,756
Total number of votes for senate candiate in ohio is 5,288,216
Total number of vote for ballot initiative in ohio is 5,260,325

My question is why the over all vote count for presidential race in ohio is 193,540 & 221,431 higher than senate total vote count and ballot initiative respective..

So for sure something went WRONG.. and we need to push for total recount in OH & FL.

Peter, it is not uncommon for people to vote for president and leave the rest of their ballots blank. I bet you will find similar discrepancies in the states that Kerry won.

BTW, I was looking at county by county turnout figures for Florida yesterday. There are two clear possibilities: it could be the case that they rigged the vote, but it really could be the case that their GOTV really just kicked our butts. Most of their counties had turnout between 70-85%. Ours were more like 50-66%.

There are people going over all of the numbers.

You guys KILL ME!
"Republicans, being the cynical/manipulative bastards that they are, will always find some wedge issue that will convince these voters that the Blue State Democratic candidate is evil and/or un-Christian and un-American"
Who's cynical?
"This year, it was gay marriage. In 1988, it was Mike Dukakis vetoing a bill requiring teachers to recite the Pledge of Allegiance"
Who put gay marriage on the map?
The only thing people remember about Dukakis was his ride in the M1. His numbers "tanked" after that. 96% of the people are not voting for W based on faith. So worry about the fringe all you want but 96% of the voters aren't. Give them someone to vote for whom doesn't take a poll when Bin laden releases a video. Kerry claimed in the first debate he "didn't want to see the troops to come home and betreated like they were from Nam" He's the clown that started treating them that way. Look at the age brackets! You may think people are dumb, but they have good memory.

Your rants have all discussed "strategy", yet you missed the real point. The mandate isn't W, it's in control of the house and senate.

96% of voters know you can't channel a new born through a heart monitor. Like Edwards did to win 6 million for himself.

96% of voters don't buy voting for something, before you vote against it. It won't matter how you try to explain it away.

Give 96% someone whom can stick to a side of an issue despite what people think. Then start thinking of a strategy.

Where I live in Ohio and in the surrounding counties the pro-life issue is the only issue most catholics voted on. I voted for Kerry and am proud of it, but I can't say that too loudly, or I'm branded an an evil immoral person. I've seem many many bumper stickers say you can't be catholic and pro-choice. In the area around here that is the main and only issue, believe me. The papers around the area had full page spreads on the abortion issue alone. My mom is about as catholic as they get, yet she wanted to vote Kerry but was made to feel so guilty by the priest in church sermons she didn't vote at all, and many of her friends said the same thing. We somehow have to come accross to these that pro-choice doesn't make you a baby killing monster. Upset with my own faith in Ohio.

Where I live in Ohio and in the surrounding counties the pro-life issue is the only issue most catholics voted on. I voted for Kerry and am proud of it, but I can't say that too loudly, or I'm branded an an evil immoral person. I've seem many many bumper stickers say you can't be catholic and pro-choice. In the area around here that is the main and only issue, believe me. The papers around the area had full page spreads on the abortion issue alone. My mom is about as catholic as they get, yet she wanted to vote Kerry but was made to feel so guilty by the priest in church sermons she didn't vote at all, and many of her friends said the same thing. We somehow have to come accross to these people that pro-choice doesn't make you a baby killing monster. Upset with my own faith in Ohio.

That problem is not a focus on values, it is that huge parts of the country have been cut off from a grounding in reality. What information sources have informed these values-centric folk that George Bush is an inveterate liar; a perpetual liar; a liar in matters large and small. And, unlike a teller of tall tales, not even an interesting liar.

The problem is not values: it is that propaganda has replaced news, and huge segments of the population have (admittedly through their own bad choices) cut themselves off from reality.

What is to be done? That is the hard part.

Do the math based on what Brooks says--if as he and Kohut claim that the % of evangelicals was the same, and as a baseline that is 16% (the antiabortion vote), then the biggest increase in GOTV is 1.6M based upon the 10M increase in the vote. THat is a far cry from Rove's mythical 4M and a HUGE difference from the apparent 9-10M increased votes Bush got allegedly. I hate to sound conspiratorial, but I am increasingly concerned that the republican GOTV effort focused on manufactured votes from touch screen machines.

Daniel, I understand your point, but in Franklin county in OH the diffrence is 32,909 and the difference between Kerry and Bush is 41,377.. Why? Also any one knows how many votes are disqualified.. I hope after Nov 12 every one will get a better picture.. I still feel hope is on the way..

well, will Dems support a Dem candidate who is pro-life and anti-gay ? NC Governor is one and he won re-election this year. I believe TN Gov is also pro-life but not sure.

The question all Dems have to ask is can we sacrifice principles for power ? Unless Dems can answer this Q honestly, Rethugs will be in control in DC for long time to come.

Look at the map again, all moderate republicans are slowly disappearing. Demint won in SC, Colburn in OK etc....Soon we may have neo-cons GOp vs neo-cons Dems. Thats how I see it today.

Go West, young man. It is the only solution in 2008 or 2012. FL is part of the south so when Jebbie Bush won reelection I knew Fl is not in play. OH could be in play but difficult.

It seems like there is another option. Drive a wedge between the evangelicals and the moderate Republicans. Perhaps the moderate Republicans are as disgusted by what has happened as we are.

Peter:

Please send me an email through the link on the front page of the blog.

Peter:

the question we should ask is was it easy to vote in red counties in OH and FL ? because if there were many polling places in those red counties, it shortened wait time thus encounraging more people to vote.

in FL, the whole Broward county had only 1 voting place and of course, it was intentional designed to discourage people especially blacks from voting. FL Katherin Harris II aka Glenda Hood promised she would open more polling places but never did. If the lines were too long, people won't wait.

Living in AR(Red, red, red), I must get any objective news via the web; unless one regards TV news as objective.
So, after read throught these comments, I believe that every one sounds valid--in part. The question in my mind is how do all the parts come together to create a viable strategy?
In addition, my gut feeling(seems to work for the Rs)is that a war is coming between the R-moderates and R-religion right. And if the Dems can stand back and let em at it, we can pick off the loser. Just my two cents.

It wasn't just a horse named " Gay Bash " Bush rode in on .
Much of GOP appeal is still cemented in the issue of race ; with a pedigree buffed up earlier by the attack on the affirmative action , it's like bubbles in a Pepsi - just part of the product and the Wal-Mart Republicans know it . An exit poll question on the importance Bush's opposition to affirmative action would have documented that .

It wasn't just a horse named " Gay Bash " Bush rode in on .
Much of GOP appeal is still cemented in the issue of race ; with a pedigree buffed up earlier by the attack on the affirmative action , it's like bubbles in a Pepsi - just part of the product and the Wal-Mart Republicans know it . An exit poll question on the importance Bush's opposition to affirmative action would have documented that .

It wasn't just a horse named " Gay Bash " Bush rode in on .
Much of GOP appeal is still cemented in the issue of race ; with a pedigree buffed up earlier by the attack on the affirmative action , it's like bubbles in a Pepsi - just part of the product and the Wal-Mart Republicans know it . An exit poll question on the importance Bush's opposition to affirmative action would have documented that .

Dems can stand back and let em at it, we can pick off the loser.

Excellent call! A couple morre weeks and we should see the big cracks begins.

I ask again, would Rove had said "oh we can't run such a story". Remember the Swift Boat bullshit. And again, I said that you cannot win a war with sticks when the enemy uses bullets. I am mad as hell right now, and I say give them what they gave us in spades. We should have run the story on Bush and abortion. Do you think that Evangelicals would have voted for Bush if they knew about that story? Who cares whether it is true or not. Rove&Co. never let truth stand in their way.

Judith speaks extreme truth.

Yuval: The answer to your question is "YES". Your first option is not an option at all...and you know, we will never "convert" any conservatives.

Sadly, sometimes, one must fight fire with fire.

You can't get the evangelical vote with farm to market radio. What planet do you live on where all evangelicals live on a farm?