Unfortunately, these are real issues facing whichever party is in office. The social ponzi schemes are collapsing, because there just aren't enough workers coming into the system to support those who are retiring. It's fairly obvious Bush is just floating this up as a Red Herring to run out his term, and pass it on to the next administration.

What's probably more ominous than anything right now is the housing bubble. I have a sneakin' suspicion Greenspan is trying to pop the housing bubble. Both Japan and Hong Kong saw over 50% declines in housing after their bubbles popped. If that were to happen here, it'd be very tragic. I heard 1 in 9 folks are employed in CA in the real estate business.

I'm really hoping we see a few years of 0% growth in housing. These 20-30% moves up the last few years aren't sustainable.

Just my 2-cents, Esteban.

Washington-Louisville in 20 minutes. Don't miss it!

We may agree on something for once...

"It's fairly obvious Bush is just floating this up as a Red Herring to run out his term, and pass it on to the next administration."

That and pay off politcal debts.

Oh and the housing bubble... I scared shitless of that too... something else we share.

Looks to me like thay've take care of Medicare and Social Security is next.

Yeah, dry fly, the housing bubble is gnarly. 20-30% moves for the last few years reminds me of the late-90's stock surge when the SP500 was up double-digits year after year. At that stock peak, people were convinced it'd last forever.

Now, you have laws being passed allowing for more real estate investing in IRAs. People buying 2-3 investment properties, hoping to flip it for $100K in a year or so, etc. Crazy loan packages just to get folks to qualify for a loan, that have a teaser rate for a few years but then switch to a more traditional loan down the road at whatever rates are.

Meanwhile, rents are FALLING...

What's also interesting, is that I have a good friend who does retirement planning for folks. And he's telling me that a crazy number of people are leaving CA. They sell their homes, and move to lower tax states with cheaper property. Many don't have many assets, so their house is it. They take that cash, move to Wyoming (for example), and can pick up a house and have tons of cash left over.

He says he's never seen anything like what's been happening the last year or so. Perhaps lots of more boomers leaving.

Anyways, don't mean to stray off topic too much on Steve's thread here. But heck, the thread is about crisis mode, eh?

The social ponzi schemes are collapsing,

Stop! Don't say absurd things like that when I'm drinking. I'll do a spit take on the screen. Why not call them "Nazi hijinks", or "elitist scampi", or the "weasel in the laundromat". These are just as relevant as your "social ponzi scheme".

If that were to happen here, it'd be very tragic.

At least the bancruptcy legislation is going to protect lenders when people realize their McMansions are only worth 1/2 what they paid for them and their ARM is 12% and climbing.

What's probably more ominous than anything right now is the housing bubble.

My goodness. It only took you a year to come around. If you forecast stocks like this you need to be careful. I forgot, you don't do the market. No problem there.

One thing about Medicare...

I do NOT think it will continue to explode in cost like it has... the you can thank the Schiavo's & Schindlers for that... and others in similar situations... here's why.

My mom died last fall - she had coronary disease for a long time... heart attack, by pass, carotids, renal angioplasty... whole deal. Even lost her legs due to 'cholesterol snow'... She recovered from everyone of them and kept on trucking... quite a gal.

In the end she had a massive coronary that incapacitated her and she was told she wouldn't get better - that she could linger on life support for a while or die sooner... she chose to die. We brought her out to a hospice and she was there about a week and passed on. It was hard to watch but she passed peacefully - actually very similar to how Terri will go... my Mom starved and dehydrated... Her arterial disease was so advanced her intestines were dying from lack of blood (clogged veins)... she was unable to keep water or food down.

We talked to the hospice people while this was going on and learned that there was huge demand for these services... that people were increasingly opting for this route as opposed to the nightmare freak show that occurs around death in most hospitals. The cost per day at the hospice was about what a nice hotel costs... in hospital ICU it might be $10k a day or more depending on the level of staffing & capital.

FWIW the last couple years of life consume something like 30-40% of a persons complete life long medical 'budget'... and the quality of life during those years are often (not always) awful. The more intesive and aggressive the care often the worse the quality of life. The art going forward will be to learn where those trade offs are and to better educate us all on the options. I already see it happening through my Mom's experience...

You are going to see lower cost and equally effective procedures to improve lifespan AND quality... then a wiser selection of when enough is enough. And what the hospice people told me... it won't be forced on us from government... we will increasingly know... people are now huning them out when it is time.

I believe them - the night my mother passed away I was there with my dad.. and he told me he wants to go this way to... to make sure it happens. he has a living will and adesignated trustee that is on the same page... hopefully he never gets illin Florida.

The Medicare trends you see in that study assume we do business as usual - it isn't going to happen that way. Most of us won't allow that. There is a paradigm shift happening - ask the hospice people.

...the social ponzi schemes are collapsing, because there just aren't enough workers coming into the system to support those who are retiring. It's fairly obvious Bush is just floating this up as a Red Herring to run out his term, and pass it on to the next administration. Posted by muckdog
Actually, there are enough workers coming into the workplace to support those retiring, so while neither Social Security nor Medicare are Ponzi schemes, your ignorance isn't total: you do seem to have some awareness that Bush not only worsened the situation, but also that he is a demagogue.

See, the problems come when you think anything the Bush Admin does is the result of a Plan. All they do is react to what they think will get their "base" excited - politics over policy . There is no Plan for anything. Even Bush himself admitted this week that he had no Plan for SS. No Plan to exit Iraq...hell, he didn't have a Plan to invade Iraq in the first place. Just did it.
But, hey, W. can't run again and so the clear Purpose becomes clear. It ain't about W., it's about controlling this country. That's the point, and guy's like Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld are the point people. They are running a NO-Plan Administration completely based and dependent upon Media Control. Cut that off and they will be done in a week.

T2, and they all said "AMEN".

At least the bancruptcy legislation is going to protect lenders when people realize their McMansions are only worth 1/2 what they paid for them and their ARM is 12% and climbing.

No need to declare bankruptcy, because in a home loan, the home is the collateral. Folks will simply walk away from the house and throw the bank the keys.

And yes, Medicare and Social Security are ponzi schemes. In order for them to work, you have to recruit new workers to pay into the system, because it's a wealth transfer scheme. There are no assets in the system.

Referring to SSI and Medicare as ponzi schemes has long been a favorite frame by right-wingnuts. While it it is true that both rely on a pyramid of payees, the goal is vastly different. In a ponzi scheme, the farther you climb up the pyramid, the wealthier you get. That is the essential difference between SSI and a ponzi scheme. There is no greed in SSI, it is merely intended to be a small safety net when you are elderly. There is no social compassion in a ponzi scheme, there is in SSI, that is what people like Muckdog fail to grasp. I wish in the future, Muckdog, you would refrain from calling SSI a ponzi sceme, because it is most certainly not.

The greater transfer of wealth was giving the social security trust fund to the top 1% as a tax break.

I agree, this issue is not about SSI, it is about the tax cuts. Bush played a dangerous short-term game, and now it's time to pay up, but rather than pay up, they want to cancel this social program and continue this scam. That's what the real issue is about.

I suppose the real sad thing from someone like muckdog's perspective is that George Bush's tax cut follies helped in a large way to expose the 21 year prepayment of payroll taxes into the SSTF for what it really has been.

A covert tax cut for the wealthy financed on the backs of American workers.

Thanks George!

When the real estate bubble bursts--and it will--it will affect Wall Street severely, more so than normal because all these low-rate creative mortages are packaged and sold on the Street as mortgage-backed securities, which will collapse faster than real estate prices. This is another reason nobody should have Social Security money under risk.

Right now, which the Democrats don't seem to want to explain, Social Security is a Defined Benefit Plan plus Insurance for survivors and disabilities. But private accounts would just be another Defined Contribution Plan, not really different than tax-sheltered IRAs, 401Ks, SEPPs, Keoghs, 356s, etc. These plans are a dime a dozen--but try to fund a Defined Benefit Plan. Only extremely high income people can afford to do so, like heart surgeons. Social Security allows all of us to get some benefits just like the wealthy, but with no risk (except from politicians like Bush) and guaranteed income.