Comments: Civil War in Iraq?

Amazing. And insane. And horrifying.

Betcha the White House doesn't acknowledge the 'civil war' phrase for at least several months.

Posted by idiosynchronic at May 13, 2005 07:26 AM

Juan Cole says today that May 2007 exit date is wildly optimistic.

Posted by theologicus at May 13, 2005 07:28 AM

Mission Accomplished?

Posted by muckcat at May 13, 2005 07:29 AM

The genie is never getting back in. Since the destruction of Fallujah the Sunni Arabs have been in rebellion against the foreign Christian occupation. As long as US troops continue to destroy Sunni towns the chaos will escalate. To date, the Iraqis have been conserving their forces except when defending their homes. The only way the USA can now pacify Iraq is to ethnically cleanse the Sunni Arabs. But, that will take the draft. For this reason, I wouldn’t be surprised by a diversionary bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear sites in hopes for retaliation that will jump start the draft.

Posted by Jim S at May 13, 2005 08:01 AM

Things have to be bad when even the MSM spin machine can't bring itself to regurgitate the desperation/broken backs/last gasp of the insurgents narrative. Even so, they manage to include just a hint of that narrative ("While there is a chance the current flare of violence is the insurgency's last gasp..."). Meahwhile, I notice that we have Gen. Myers reminding us that insurgencies take "up to 9 years" while Talabani talks about an American withdrawl in 2007. Hmmm....

Posted by 1MaNLan at May 13, 2005 08:05 AM

...Now the 140,000-plus U.S. troops in the country are mainly "a nuisance" factor.

That is one hell of "a nuisance", one that I would not want to be up against.

Posted by bigdog at May 13, 2005 08:26 AM

This topic is exactly why Bush I stopped at the Iraq-Kuwait border. OK...so people have been saying, "Oh, we can't pull out...there will be a civil war." Well, now there is one. So when are we going to GET THE HELL OUT?????

Posted by roamer at May 13, 2005 08:49 AM

I find it very interesting that - in light of the assasination of at least two Iraqi governmental ministry officials and the kidnapping of a regional governor by Iraqis - anyone could be making the case for the civil war not already being in progress.

But then, within the Bu$hCo 'reality', that isn't the only myth being presented as literal fact.

Posted by pessimist at May 13, 2005 08:58 AM

That is one hell of "a nuisance", one that I would not want to be up against.

Yeah, but if the rattler's afraid to come out of it's den, why fear walking in the scrub? As long as they keep it holed up - a fine line of intimidation and provoking it too far, I admit - the Iraqi's can do pretty much what they want.

We'll probably hear about a cruise missile and pin-point bombing of 'suspected terrorist bases & safe houses' in the rest of Iraq sometime soon, but if you think that will put a dent in the long-term resistance, you're as dumb as a cocker spaniel. It'll be a show more to the folks here that we still have the upper hand, but it'll be a substantive lie on the ground in Iraq. The current operation in Western Iraq is the same type of smokescreen.

Posted by idiosynchronic at May 13, 2005 09:11 AM

Bingo, pessimist. And it's been going on for 6 months at least.

Posted by idiosynchronic at May 13, 2005 09:12 AM

Anyone ready to forward a plan to bomb Iran at tet? :)

Posted by Jim Hurt at May 13, 2005 09:52 AM

Keep painting those schools, dammit. We're almost there!

Posted by Davis X. Machina at May 13, 2005 10:28 AM

There is a very simple concept in political science that the neocons don't seem to get. I can understand why Powell did not get it in 1991, but he was a subordinate, not one in charge. It is really scary when the people in charge don't get it.

The concept is "power vacuum", which is what we created with this invasion. An illustration of power vacuum would be ethiopia for the better part of last 50 years and Somalia, circa 1992-3. We all know what was happening in Somalia and what continued to happen during and after the US presence there. Al Qaida was not the problem, even if it were an instigator. The problem was a power vacuum that allowed fringe element to move in. Soviet's repeated removal and replacement of heads of state in Afghanistan was responsible for the creation of the power vacuum there as well--the only reason it took a while to explode was the presence of Soviet troops. Again, once they left--and the US destabilization efforts stopped--the fringe element moved in. The result? Again, we all know the result.

What do Afghanistan and Somalia have in common? They both provided fertile ground for terrorist organizations that allied themeselves with various war lords. What is happening in Iraq now? You can bet your bottom dollar that it's the same thing!

Local power vacuum breeds international problems. Forced removal of those in power by an outside force is very different from the removal of the power from within because of the change in attitude among the local population. This is why the de-Sovietization of Eastern Europe went smoothly, in relative terms, even though there were also elements of power vacuum there as well (e.g., the control of a large chunks of post-Soviet Russian economy by the local mafia composed of ex-communists and organized crime element).

Many predicted this result for Iraq, the superficial democratic govenment notwithstanding.

Posted by buck turgidson at May 13, 2005 10:42 AM

A splendid point about the power vacuum, Mr. Turgidson. For any number of reasons, though, Iraq will likely be a much better breeding ground for future terrorist blowback than either Afghanistan or Iraq. Nowadays, because AQ took down the WTC, Afghanistan looks like the ultimate terror seedbed, but just wait ten years; the Iraqi resistance(s) will have metastasized to the point where the entire region will be unsafe.

Posted by Matt Davis at May 13, 2005 11:14 AM

Just wait until Iraqi Kurds try to form an indpenedent Kurdistan and Turkey comes across the border in response. Turkey absolutely WILL NOT allow an independent Kurdistan to occur. Turkey is a member of NATO, so what agreements will get triggered when this conflict happens?

Posted by roamer at May 13, 2005 11:29 AM

roamer, you may be right, but the kurds have been given the iraqi presidency. also, turkey is looking for EU membership; that might stay their hand. or not.

Posted by benjoya at May 13, 2005 12:46 PM

When I viewed that picture, I too got teary. Damn this President. His hands are full of the blood of the innocent. May he rot in Internal Hell for eternity. (Sorry, not very Christian, but honest).

Posted by Judith at May 13, 2005 01:00 PM

And damn the media along with Bush. How long would this insanity continue with pictures such as this on the front pages of newspapers?

Posted by Judith at May 13, 2005 01:02 PM

When I saw that picture for the first time, I instantly remembered the picture of the firefighter holding the baby in the OK City Bombing attacks.

Posted by T at May 13, 2005 02:07 PM

Mary, how about blaming the jihadist murderers who ended that child's life? Most Iraqis do. Why don't you? Because you think those murderers are Minutemen? Shameful.

Posted by Toby Petzold at May 13, 2005 05:54 PM

Mary, how about blaming the jihadist murderers who ended that child's life? Most Iraqis do.

The kid would still be alive if Bush hadn't decided to get his war on, Toby. And from everything I've been reading lately (kids throwing stones at our soldiers; people yelling obscenities at them; whole villages signalling the resistance that the Marines are coming) I don't know where you get the idea that Iraqis blame the resistance for their misery. Drop Rummy into the outskirts of Baghdad and have him walk to the Green Zone, and let's see who the Iraqis blame for the destruction and killing around them.

Posted by Basharov at May 13, 2005 07:38 PM

I will tell you what is shameful, a President that believes in killing, motivated by greed.

Posted by Judith at May 13, 2005 09:00 PM

Toby, if you don't like that picture we created 100,000 more just like it with other non-combatant civilians since the "war" in Iraq began. Always remember this: the children in Iraq are more malnourished and less healthy under us than Saddam. But that's the new Democracy we bring people, and the one you support.

Posted by phidipides at May 13, 2005 09:35 PM

Turkey wants in the EU. They regard it as their present and future. The only danger out of Turkey is uncontrolled non-governmental actions.

Europe for its part, needs young Turkish workers. Expanding the EU into Turkey helps it demographically. Europe is Turkey's friend.

Posted by argus at May 13, 2005 10:14 PM

Could Bush want a cival war? If it was so obvious that it would happen, how could he benefit from it?

Posted by dude at May 15, 2005 03:03 AM