I'm not quite sure it's that simple. Strenghtening the EU, sure. Good stuff.
That particular constitution? Well, maybe a lot less so.. It's not for nothing that both the right AND th left were against it.
Strenghtening the EU at any price will only lead to more trouble.
But then, that's only my impression as a Canadian. I'm not 100% up to date on the situation, so with more information maybe I'd see things differently.
Posted by Mikhail Capone at May 31, 2005 01:41 AMYou just have to admire the French. The proposed constitution was a lawyers dream, chock full of the most ridiculous double-speak, a true quagmire of legislation. Instead of rolling over at the request of their "leedurs" they voted their consciences. Admirable indeed.
This does not mean the EU is out, nor does it mean the Euro is dead. The borders are open and commerce goes on. Today will be the same as the day before. I think we can expect a signed constitution when people can understand what the hell it says, and figure out how it delineates the roles of the the respective states without some politician having to explain it.
Posted by phidipides at May 31, 2005 07:31 AMYou're totally off-base in much of what you say. As many in the economically elite media do, you raise the bogeyman of Le Pen. But two-thirds of the *left* voted Non, while a majority of the right-of-center voted Oui. That Le Pen happened to oppose it for other reasons, doesn't mean that the left's opposition was justified. And, believe me, it was. They stood up to the imposition of a neo-liberal regime *by law*. They are the big winners. My hope is that this vote is the beginning of a populist revolt against the economic elite--the mutli-national corporations, capital, government and the media--and their effort to impose a neo-liberal economic race to the bottom on the world.
Posted by Paleo at May 31, 2005 07:45 AMHow's that "dollars for euros" trade you folks were championing back in early January working out for ya?
Snort.
The only thing consistant about the French, is their consistancy. I imagine many of those socialist countries, mired down with staggering unemployment and no economic growth, might be heading towards a historic inflection point.
Posted by muckdog at May 31, 2005 09:13 AMThe only thing consistant about the French, is their consistancy.
That's deep muckdog.
Posted by muckcat at May 31, 2005 10:12 AMHow's that "dollars for euros" trade you folks were championing back in early January working out for ya?
The dollar is still 50% weaker than it was a few years ago. While stronger now than it was a couple of months ago, it is still weak. It was around $.80-.85. Then it plummeted to around $1.30 (or more than 50%). Now it has strengthened to around $1.22 - $1.24, or about 5%. No one expects the dollar to strengthen too much more until we fix our deficit problems.
Actual data:
5/31/01: 0.8575
5/31/02: 0.9376
5/31/03: 1.17830
5/31/04: 1.22430
4/21/05: 1.30960
5/31/05: 1.24740
Good short-term gain to make forex junkies potentially rich. Bad long-term trend.
Posted by Daniel Maskit at May 31, 2005 01:15 PMBut Daniel, nobody wanted to make that trade until January 2005. You had folks commenting on THIS VERY SITE in January that the BEST THING TO DO would be to convert your dollars to Euros.
LOL.
Snort.
Posted by muckdog at May 31, 2005 01:45 PM"That's deep muckdog." - Well, only if we don't count off for spelling.
Posted by chasmrich at May 31, 2005 02:07 PMBut Daniel, nobody wanted to make that trade until January 2005. You had folks commenting on THIS VERY SITE in January that the BEST THING TO DO would be to convert your dollars to Euros.
I wasn't one of them.
Anyway, this is just blowing smoke to detract from the fact that yon chimp in office has savaged our currency. We've had four years of solid downward trend and you are crowing about one month of moderate improvement?
Posted by Daniel Maskit at May 31, 2005 02:07 PMMuckdog, what are you doing here? You should be fighting in Iraq - you coward!
Posted by vet at May 31, 2005 03:01 PMGood job avoiding that trade, Daniel. Many of the so-called "mental elite" here were advocating switching dollars to euros in January '05. That trade has been nothing short of a disaster.
Maybe those on the wrong side of that trade can just consider it a learning experience. As if they paid tuition at a university.
They were wrong. I was right. 'Nuff said.
And Daniel, I hope you know that trends change. The most common mistake investors make is failing to recognize the change in trend. You know what they say, the crowd tends to get the middle of the trend right, but then they lose it all at the inflection points.
Back to Europe, you wonder if their experiment in Socialism is near such an inflection point. We'll have to see how it plays out.
Posted by muckdog at May 31, 2005 04:16 PMmuck,
In your eagerness to crow you're leaving out one importiant point: The 'short' is only short if the prediction is pegged to the given time that the short happens. A short term position can be counter to a longer term trend which will show over time.
Posted by argus at May 31, 2005 05:11 PMHow's that "dollars for euros" trade you folks were championing back in early January working out for ya?
Depends on when you took your profits. The dollar will have a big ass drop in the third quarter. Of course, if a person really watched the money markets they would have had a fistfull of Chilean pesos, and still hold them.
Posted by phidipides at June 1, 2005 08:40 AM