Similarly, the economic gap in presidential preferences is now much wider than in April. A solid majority (55%) of voters with annual family incomes of greater than $50,000 continue to support Bush's reelection. That compares with only about a third (34%) of voters with annual household incomes of less than $50,000. In April, a 46% plurality of this group backed Bush's reelection; today, a comparable plurality (45%) backs the Democrat.

Considering that half the country is under that $50K income, the fact that they are starting to lean anti-Bush means that we once again come to the "who votes" problem. If Democrats really turn people out in the next election then the Repubs are dead meat. If these people stay home, then it is the rest of us that are in jeopardy.

"Several months of watching the Dean/Lieberman firefight will be good for the party, ..."

Since Joe has chosen to describe Dean as the destroyer of the DEM party, this is not a fight that is good for the party. His comments yesterday (FTN or Faux?) dismissed some very importance Democratic Party principles and made me want to support getting him out of Congress. He also must be very stupid since the strategy of hugging GWB on war and taxes didn't work in 2002 and isn't going to work in 2004. (Plus he is not easy on the eyes and ears and America is shallow enough for this to be a deciding factor.)

agreed with Marie...
Lieberman is the spoiler...he needs to be dealt with soon.
I like the idea of getting him out of Congress...
Conn. Dem's, are you listening?

Great analysis!

I really think South has made a fatal mistake by backing the wrong horse. Even if South can succeed in killing Dean, Lieberman won't benefit. He will never be the dem nominee. Kerry or Gephardt would benefit. Right now, I think Dean has a better shot at Bush than those guys.

To echo Marie, Lieberman must be really stupid if he thinks corporate cronyism, Rebublican-lite, Bush hugging & appealing solely to conservative white male voters & really ancient people will win the day. He doesn't get it if he thinks Clinton's talents counted for nothing. Talentwise, Lieberman is absolutely no Clinton. Lieberman acts as if he is scared of anyone under 50, anyone with a vagina, anyone who goes to the movies & listens to contemporary music, and of anyone who would actually attend a rally or a protest or volunteer at the grassroots level.

Kerry will never kick it unless he drops Jordan & Lehane. They are displaying all their worst instincts in spades.

After months of concern about this field of candidates, I am for the first time encouraged about the polls and our candidates.

The thing we all need to be more "concerned" about, starting now I think, is the size of the field. Nine (ten with Clark) candidates is too many. If we go into the primary season with even seven or eight still standing, odds are it will be a bloody, and divisive primary season for the Democrats. I'd hoped to be seeing the end of the Lieberman campaign by the end of this quarter. Likewise, at some point, hopefully, the left-wing candidates will graciously throw their support to Dean. (Alright, Dean or Kerry.) If Clark jumps in, after Labor Day, then I would start to be concerned. His late entry will confuse further a race that just has too many people in it. Add the CA fiasco during September, October, November... and the focus on a unified Democratic message will be blurred, just as we head into the primary "high campaign season."

Anyone who supports ABB should consider that no matter how good our field of Democratic candidates is, the party needs a unified message and it isn't going to get there soon enough if there are so many presumptive standard-bearers through the end of the year.

Great analysis, the best i've read anywhere.
Thanks!

Wow. That was an insightful analysis of where things stand now, Steve. Thanks.

" Lieberman is absolutely no Clinton. Lieberman acts as if he is scared of anyone under 50, anyone with a vagina, anyone who goes to the movies & listens to contemporary music, and of anyone who would actually attend a rally or a protest or volunteer at the grassroots level."

Yes, he is so offensive. He treats the party's base (and even its moderates) like they are a big embarassment and have to be hidden from view and ignored. Meanwhile, he bows to GWB and the GOP, tacitly acknowledging they are superior.

Surely he could at least try to appeal to the center without trashing and enraging the left in the process, but i guess he thinks he discredits dean best by discrediting the core party values.

This was great peace of writng.

I agree that the Lieberman throwing down of the guantlet is a fight for the soul of the party - if Lieberman is able to some prevail with his current rhetoric - the Greens poll 7% in '04 and the progressive wing of the Democratic party is crushed.