It'll end up being the 21st century's first Viet Nam.

I actually think this will be dramatically worse than Vietnam. It will have a similar depressing effect on the American public's sense of invulnerability, but let's face it: Once we left Vietnam, the Vietnamese were content to let things go.

I seriously doubt that Islamist fanatics will do the same.

I definitely agree with you about Josh Marshall --there are definitely times he is enamored with being part of the realist, tough-thinker pundantry. I know that in the leadup to the war, his support of the administration's policy really hurt the arguments against the policy. (Unfortunately, his principled opposition late in the game didn't make nearly as much of an effect -- possibly because people had already madeup their minds based on earlier reporting of Josh?)

After reading this, I'm much less optimistic about our Iraqi adventure. I think both Josh and Bergen are not recognizing how crazy things are now. They still believe that people will be operating logically -- I think that the extremists are in charge and they really could care less -- we are in for a very rough ride.

I think both Josh and Bergen are not recognizing how crazy things are now. - Mary at August 23, 2003 01:57 AM

They can't. In their different ways, they're creatures of the Establishment (particularly Marshall, who BTW with his Princeton PhD really should know the difference between 'principal' and 'principle'), and the current Establishment has thrown away the legitimacy created out of the WWII experience. Someone said about Michael Jackson that he was only intriguing when he was walking that fine, edgy line - once he fell over he was just another sick rich deviant above the law. As Christopher Lasch might have said, the elite should earn their Privelege every day - it wasn't supposed to be just about them and their greater glory. Once they forgot that essential core part, they lost it all. The toe of my boot to them, as the Irish say.

Peter Bergen's book is very good, too.

There is a paradox here. While history goes into fast forward, the public goes into pause. The gap between what's happening and to whom it happens grows wider every day. Unless this pattern changes for the better in some manner, and soon, the stretch will be too long a span to support, and collapse ensues.

And down will come Baby Bush, Cradle of Civilization, and all!

I have recently heard many different observers indicate that we need to stay the course as long as it takes to restore order to Iraq, the alternative being civil war that spills over into neighboring countries. This could throw the entire persian gulf and beyond into play for the Al Quaeda sorts.

Possible, yes. The domino theory updated for the new millenium.

It is also possible that these events will come to pass even if we stay in the region to fix things or if we give the whole thing over to the UN.

I am suspicious though that a counterintuitive strategy will produce the least disruptive outcome for the region. We should remove the American troop presence soon and replace it with a Muslim peace keeping force of some sort. It doesn't matter how poor the Muslim force is, it would be better than any western or asian presence. I say this because any other sort of presence will only play into the hands of the most radical Islamists and their goal of controling the area. They can justify the most outrageous attacks (such as the UN bombing) by saying "look, we are just trying to evict the infidel".

But imagine if the infidel were gone. Just Iraqi's trying to pick up the pieces with the help of other muslims and humanitarian aid delivered through the UN and other NGOs. The extremists would completely loose the wind in their sails. The country would be taken out of geopolitical play.

Would there be a civil war? There would almost certainly be some sort of internacine violence. But there already is, especially in the north. Will it spread to other countries esp. Saudi Arabia? Perhaps, but this is also true if we stay.

The real danger of staying in my mind is the true anti-Western radicalization of the opposition movement using our troops as a foil. Were this truly radicalized movement to eventually control the country after having evicted us through atrition, then neighboring countries and the rest of the world would truly have reason to worry.