I sure agree with you on the designation "cultists." That is the only conceiveable explanation I have been able to come up with for these hard core, faith-based Bush believers.
Posted by KathyP at September 9, 2005 08:33 AM[T]here are about 35% in this country that I believe are true cultists who would never turn against Bush, no matter what he does.
I'll bet you a beer next time I'm in NorCal that it's closer to 30%. For once, it's looking like we'll actually find out the size of the cult. Mid- to late-October, we'll have failures on multiple prominent fronts, and perhaps some indictments.
Posted by dj moonbat at September 9, 2005 08:46 AMAgree with dj moonbat - the floor is a little lower. Look at the rock bottom of approval for Chimpy's plan to destroy Social Security. It's about 28%. Any true cultist would swallow the Social Security Koolaid along with everything else. Interesting, though, that the leading indicators on Chimpy's dispapproval turn out to be the things that affect people personally -- energy, Social Security, the economy. The war was a relative late comer to this party. It's possible that the very slow American public is only now figuring out that ALL of it affects them personally, and we may yet find that the Koolaid is not nearly as potent as everyone thought.
Posted by mamayaga at September 9, 2005 08:51 AMCheer up Steve...I agree with DJ and mamayaga...as I mentioned in a different post, I believe that the floor support is 25%-30%....let's face it, he has now signed an executive order allowing for less than minimum wage for N.O. reconstruction...that'll sit well with the red-staters who will be doing the grunt work...this guy doesn't get it and won't get it...Atrios had an article about how Rove et al missed the glorious opportunity to get Shrub a poll boost with the "Corrina" disaster and they missed it....they can't shoot straight...end of story, so what's going to give them a nudge???? ...na na na na... hey hey hey... GOOD BYE!
Posted by Goyo at September 9, 2005 09:02 AM...the trolls seem rather quiet these days!!!
Posted by Goyo at September 9, 2005 09:04 AM...the trolls seem rather quiet these days!!!
Shhh! Ixnay on the olltray...
Posted by dj moonbat at September 9, 2005 09:09 AMYou're right about the base cult support. This is the first time in American history we've seen such an enormous percentage of people who will still be shouting "Seig Heil!" just before they're vaporized in Bush's nuclear war with Iran and North Korea.
Posted by nohelp at September 9, 2005 09:10 AMYes, the floor is somewhere between 25 and 30%. (Throw in a depression and it might go to zero.)
Posted by Marie at September 9, 2005 09:12 AMWait until people see what they have to pay for gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas this winter. Between that and potential economic calamity, there is absolutely room for Bush to get down to 30%.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at September 9, 2005 09:17 AMThe floor is lower than the high-mid 30s. Plame is to come later this fall, and heating oil costs and natural gas costs this winter will be a stunner.
And then there's the war. How it's currently going is anyone's guess, but I'd bet not well at all.
Posted by kimster at September 9, 2005 09:20 AMJust remember folks - it isn't important to the BFEE/PNAC Petroleum Pirate Posse how popular George is. It's who counts the votes that keeps them in power.
Posted by pessimist at September 9, 2005 09:30 AMThe more Team Bush and their spokesman, lie and obfuscate under the light of consistent reportage, the worse they look.
Broadcast the public behavior of Team Busg directly to small town red state land unfiltered, particularly inner MI and AL and see how quickly they turn blue.
Now is the time to force serious reforms. Firings, indictments, convictions and true congressional bi-partisan oversight. The House and the Congress must act to take back power from the executive. All cowardly acts of republican leaders of the House and Senate to cover for and hide the responsibility for this disaster must be telegraphed to the nation, particularly what was the red nation.
Also the spokesperson wall around the whitehouse must be torn down. It's not enough to ask the tough questions. The press must force Scottie to yeild answers. There must be consequences to those who intentionally lie to hide the dead.
Posted by patience at September 9, 2005 09:31 AMI wonder.. I'm a bit of a cynic but, does anyone else feel the simmering of a coup? I wouldn't put anything past this administration and I think they more than most realize what a fool bush is. So I'm left to wonder: If these numbers get much worse, how long before those who really pull the strings will just take over and declare martial law, suspend elections and crack down on dissent all in the name of national security?
I don't want to get off on a conspiracy rant here but, if some of the true believers in power think that they may lose that power, a power that they believe God Himself granted, then what's to stop them from using any means at their disposal to stay in charge? After all, the military, depending on which poll you believe is two thirds republican. Fox, the most widely watched cable news service would support it, as would the entire AM spectrum.
Honestly, how much more would it take before those that have the most to lose feel their backs up against the wall and react?
Posted by Brian at September 9, 2005 09:33 AMOf course you're discounting Bush mounting some irradiated rubble in downtown Boston, bullhorn in hand, and announcing a new crusade against evildoers. Desperate times call for desperate measures. There is far, far too much money involved for Bush's Mafia to let Katrina scuttle the tax cut/Social Security destruction/gut EPA regs/protect Big Pharma/defund public education agenda. Get the NSA/DIA to set off a dirty bomb somewhere and the "rush to support the President while evil, Muslim brown people are attacking us" mindset will prevail. Bush just has to tread water through the mid-terms (pun intended) and Diebold and a few state Republican Secretaries of State will take care of 2008.
Posted by steve duncan at September 9, 2005 09:37 AMWait until people see what they have to pay for gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas this winter. Between that and potential economic calamity, there is absolutely room for Bush to get down to 30%.
I'd also throw in a major housing slump as part of the real estate bubble deflation - lumber and other construction materials are going to be in shorter supply, and if gas does what people are predicting, there'll be significant cost hikes in new home construction.
I'd put the floor on Bush's support at where ever Hoover was in 1932 - 39.7%
Never under estimate how many kool-aid drinkers will continue to wash it down when the kool-aid has turned to sand.
Posted by idiosynchronic at September 9, 2005 09:38 AMMaybe this is a naive question, but does Bush's low numbers actually help us any? It's not like he's running again, and low polls haven't ever slowed down his terrible policies in the past.
It will be interesting though to see if and how much Republicans up for re-election in 2006 distance themselves from him over the next year.
Posted by at September 9, 2005 09:39 AMThe Red Staters who I know personally will never blame Bush for gas prices or anything else. They brag about not caring how high the price goes, as they continue to drive big-hog SUVs with abandon. They'll go ballistic with "patriotism" when Bush attacks Iran, and things will get uglier for anyone who disagrees. Plus, the left seems to have forgotten that the next elections will be rigged again, since nothing has been done to correct the voting machines.
Posted by nohelp at September 9, 2005 09:54 AMIt will be interesting though to see if and how much Republicans up for re-election in 2006 distance themselves from him over the next year....well my partner, who is true "Red, White and Red"..has already turned Blue...he's figured out that he's been sold a line of shit....but he's not a Taliban type...more fiscal conservative...the point being...Taliban support is probably 20% of the overall electorate...the rest of Bush support is based more on conservative theorem and not fundie B.S....the Hagels and McCain types are packed and ready to dump Bush, imo...many Repugs are watching the wind direction now and are probably ready to publicly denounce this administration as a means to hold local suppot...I believe!
Posted by Goyo at September 9, 2005 09:59 AMMaybe this is a naive question, but does Bush's low numbers actually help us any?
Yes. Not as much as one would like, but yes. House Republicans can't afford to back the policies of a wildly unpopular President (and I think sub-40% should qualify); they have to run for office next year. I think big-ticket social legislation is now simply out of the question for BushCo. Similarly, if the Democrats play the judicial nominee game right, they may be able to get an O'Connoresque "moderate" out of it, because conservatism is not looking so hot right now.
Posted by dj moonbat at September 9, 2005 10:15 AM....and now 42% of Repugs want to decrease troop levels or get out all together... hat tip to Kos.. again
Posted by Goyo at September 9, 2005 10:31 AMI am happily waiting to see HOW LOW HE CAN GO......
Posted by Marylander at September 9, 2005 10:33 AMSteve,
I agree with you. I disagree with most folks here in that Bush's approval rating will go below 35%. I know way too many Republicans, and they will never abandon Bush. Why? Two reasons: Denial of bad news information from the lame MSM and the human inability to admit mistakes.
I can't tell you how many times I have heard from Republicans, "Did you get that information (if negative about Bush) from the LIBERAL media?". When I inform them that I don't get all my information from the so called liberal media, it turns out that my facts are just plain WRONG anyway! History books and original source info placed online by the government does not matter. Want to engage in some real Alice in Wonderland discussions? Try talking about U.S. history with Republicans. I had a Republican try to convince me that FDR was like dear old Bush. America was attacked by Japan, but FDR declared war on Germany. Somehow this was equivalent to 9/11 and our then invading Iraq. When I informed this person that Germany declared war on the U.S. first, I got that 'where did you get that from' question. Now, this Republican is a nice person and a friend, but I think that you see the problem with regards to simple facts.
Secondly, ALL HUMANS hate to admit when they fucked up. People may admit that they fucked up about something, but only if it is over a minor thing (Think husband and wife in car, and the man makes a wrong turn that gets them lost). Huge fuck ups case folks to take up rafting on the River Denial (Think Republican who voted for Bush). It takes time for anyone to ever admit to themselves, "God, I was stupid when it came to...". Most,however, will never admit a mistake to themselves let alone others. Republicans would rather keep supporting Bush than whisper in the dark to themselves, "Oh My God! What have I done!".
Posted by Merlin1963 at September 9, 2005 10:57 AMBoth Papa Bush and Baby Bush once (supposedly) enjoyed astronomical (90%) approval ratings. A public that can be swayed to support ignoble foriegn debacles can flip and turn against these nuts. Whoever bothers saying a nice word about Richard Nixon, though he probably would beat Baby Bush in a fair election? There are currently a full 8 % of Americans that don't know if they support Bush or not. How can you not know??
The bottom is WAY LOWER than the high 30s. BB is in a virtual nose dive. We are all on the plane. Do you really think people are going to conclude that BB is the pilot to pull us out of the nosedive?
Am I the only one with a well-developed sense of irony? The term "lying, unqualified political hacks" sent me ROFL.
Posted by Marcus Agrippa at September 9, 2005 11:30 AMThere's a lot of people that disagree with Bush and think he is heading the country in the wrong direction because he is too liberal or too soft on terriorsts or hasn't nuked the middle east yet or something like that. This group would vote for Bush all over again against a democrat although they think he is taking the country in the wrong direction (by being too liberal). If you want to hear a spokesman for this segment of the population, listen to the Michael Savage show sometime...
Posted by Tex at September 9, 2005 12:13 PMYeah, marc, it would be funny if bushco's lying and lack of qualifications weren't killing real people.
Posted by iamcoyote at September 9, 2005 12:21 PMHave to differentiate between GWB's floor and the GOP floor. The latter is higher, but GWB's his higher than that of most individual politicians --maybe since FDR.
Brian: I'm a bit of a cynic but, does anyone else feel the simmering of a coup?
I can't help wondering if New Orleans was a dress rehearsal. Bush's poll numbers before Katrina had sunk to not much better than what we now see. Then again, I thought FL 2000 was a bloodless coup -- all those military ballots that arrived late were decisive in the "official count." Nothing is beyond what these guys would try. Just not sure they have infiltrated enough of their team in all the right positions to pull this off. Then again, a call to their buddies in the ME for another strike in the US might be their ticket.
Posted by Marie at September 9, 2005 12:27 PMTex has a point, another and larger group is the hard core anti abortionists. As long as Roe v. Wade is legal they will say the country is on the wrong track, even if everyone else, including the pro life moderates are happy. Because of this, the Bush/GOP approval number has to be in the low 40-high 30's range, about where it is now, before we can feel confedent of electoral victory. In short, if the country in general is tending to be this unhappy next year we could see a Democratic landslide. If Bush somehow gets back closer to 50% Democratic gains will likely be small.
Still, I'd rather be in our shoes than theirs.
Posted by rlp at September 9, 2005 12:30 PMTex,
According to SUSA, that's about 5% of the country. I disagree, however, that they would vote for Bush again. With the glaring incompetence for all to see, I would imagine that those voters would just sit home.
forget Bush. He is going to be president for 3 more years even if his rating is 10%. The key here is the 65% 'wrong way" number. If this goes to 70% +, which is probable in the next year, a chance for strong gains in 06 has to be the goal. Unless a miracle Christian Democracy flourishes in Iraq, gasoline goes back to $1.97 and the DJIA hits 18,000, nothing the War President can do now will salvage his worthless regime. The only question is how far down will he drag the rest of us. 06 - that's it, folks. The start of a new tomorrow.
Posted by T2 at September 9, 2005 12:56 PMKeep watching those polls, they have never let you down before.
Posted by j.west at September 9, 2005 01:22 PMT2 is right, Bush, the lame duck, is stained with blood. Now would be a good time to record the racist, classist comments from the Republican Senators and Reps to use against them during the next elections. It appears there are quite a few of them adding up right now. They just can't help themselves.
Posted by iamcoyote at September 9, 2005 01:30 PMfuck off j west...
Posted by headxray at September 9, 2005 01:37 PMOuch!
Posted by j.west at September 9, 2005 01:38 PMNYTimes:
President Bush, linking hurricane recovery and the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks four years ago, declared Friday that the United States would get past ''these difficult days.''
My God, is there anything this man won't compared to 9/11?
Posted by ann at September 9, 2005 01:42 PMT2: forget Bush
Absolutely not! Do you have any idea how much more damage he and his thugs can do to this country in the next three years if the pressure is taken of Bush? Public pressure is the only thing we got to limit and contain them.
With enough pressure, enough of the GOP thugs in Congress will be history in just over a year. And if their replacements win on a platform of impeaching Bush/Cheney they will be gone a few months after that.
Posted by Marie at September 9, 2005 02:00 PMWhy is Bush's floor in the 30's (either lower or upper) when this and other polls routinely show his strong support at around 20? There's no reason he can't go that low; it just depends upon circumstances.
Posted by matt Newman at September 9, 2005 02:02 PMmy last comment was the optimist in me coming out.
The alternative is that the pressure on Bu$hCo may leave them with no option but to try a coup.
Posted by Marie at September 9, 2005 02:03 PMtry a coup????
Wasn't that what they did in 2000? SEems to me like all they have to do now is take one of the many Executive Orders sitting on the shelf that allow for martial law, blow the dust off of it, and have King George declare that it is being invoked. Who could stop such a thing?
No one.
Posted by pessimist at September 9, 2005 02:37 PMpessimist -- I'm with you and said upthread that FL 2000 was a bloodless coup. And agree that they have the plans on the shelf and all the paperwork is ready.
And I too fear that nobody would stop them.
Marie...my stated point was that the 2006 elections are crucial to stopping this regime. By "forget Bush" I meant-who cares what his ratings are-he is still in power nonetheless- so quit running against him and start running against the GOPers up for election in 06.
Posted by T2 at September 9, 2005 02:52 PMThe coup has already taken place.
Look what they were "studying" when they thought about declaring martial law in LA. They were wondering how much more police power they could grab, and whether they could trick/bully local Democratic politicians into asking them to do it.
Do you have any doubt what would have happened if they could have got complete control and kept the press out?
Dictatorships don't walk up and say "Hi! I'm your new dictator!" They act just like Bush is acting, bullying out the good people, grasping for every bit of power they can grab, and using some of that power to satisfy the lust of their supporters- in this case, white bigots in the suburbs of New Orleans who, according to some accounts, ringed the city with police to hold in the storm survivors at gunpoint- while the Bush government was refusing to allow supplies or water in.
This in itself won't bother many Americans. But wait until they start to really figure out how much gas is costing now. That will bother them.
Posted by serial catowner at September 9, 2005 04:07 PMIf there are 2006 elections, the trick will be draping Bush over every Republican that is running. Another trick will be if the Democrats grow a backbone by 2006.
Posted by aztec at September 10, 2005 04:03 AM