The biggest problem this winter may be the shortage of natural gas. With natural gas, refineries are not the problem, production is. Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita damaged or impacted a significant part of natural gas production in the gulf. The United States has a strategic oil reserve and even a much smaller heating oil reserve but it has no practical way as yet to have a large natural gas reserve. It could be a very hard winter for the elderly and poor.
Posted by Craig at October 16, 2005 04:06 PMThe beginning of the end for us, economically. (The beginning of the end for us politically was the 2000 "election").
6 months from now we will be deep in a very serious recession that will make Dumbya's first recession look like a kiddie party. Our economic tools (deficit spending and monetary policy) have already been blown, so there's nothing that can be done.
Add in abject oil dependence with no control over price or ability to conserve and you can see things are going to get very ugly, very fast.
Thanks, George, and great work, American boobs.
Posted by euzoius at October 16, 2005 05:19 PM... suggesting that businesses have yet to significantly pass higher energy costs on to consumers.
They can't. Higher energy prices are like higher taxes. People send off their money, and have less to spend on other things. (Look at retail, gaming, and travel stocks recently). Higher energy bills slow down the economy; which, is not inflationary.
So let the sales begin. Expect to see extremely deep discounts on merchandise shortly after Halloween.
(But aren't you trying to make the point that higher energy prices are inflationary? This "extremely deep discounts" DOES NOT make your case.)
So much for that highly-touted economic boom we've been hearing about since the reign of King George began.
A little revisionist history on your part. We had an economic downturn from 2000-2002, and have been in an economic upturn from 2002-today.
Posted by muckdog at October 16, 2005 06:05 PMFor an explanation of the calamitous effects of substantial increases in the price of oil on our cheap-energy dependent economy, I suggest all concerned readers google the word "stagflation".
It's a word our idiotic president and his ideologue kool-aid drinkers will soon wish they never heard.
Posted by euzoius at October 16, 2005 06:37 PMeuzoius, stagflation was the term to describe a stagnant economy and inflation that happened in the 70's.
Our GDP is over 3%, which is not a stagnant economy.
The core rate of inflation is just over 2%, which is not inflation.
So, "stagflation" is a bunch of nonsense for 2005.
Posted by muckdog at October 16, 2005 07:09 PMmuckie perhaps you are right. There must be a new name for the economic situation we are in, as a country. While you cling to the business as usual model, the reality is quite different. Ignoring energy influences on everyday lives is just one example.
btw -- I saw one of those obnoxious Schwab animated commercials and it reminded me of you, muck -- I'm sure you have seen it -- the cartoonesk character finally realizes that the broker is not talking about his children, but the broker's own children. That's how I see you. You don't care about whether or not old people have heat, nor do you care if heating bills push middle class families into debt. You live in a place that is untouched by natural or man-made disaster. It's all the mighty markets for you.
The price of energy will be passed on, despite your saying it won't. It always has been.
muck, I hope that a fire, or earthquake, or riot, or typhoon never affect you or your family. I hope you have a peaceful life with no trauma or grief.
Except for maybe losing the ALCS.
Posted by dorita at October 16, 2005 08:35 PMpobrecito muckie.
Posted by dorita at October 16, 2005 09:29 PMWell Doritos, energy usage is a personal choice issue. With technology and transportation, nobody has to live in a particular area anymore.
One of my best friends is from Maine. He left because, in his words, "IT'S TOO F%CKING COLD!"
Now, I know you probably think that we should tax the crap out of the rich and middle class, so that folks who live in cold places can run their heaters full blast for free. But that means we keep importing energy when we should be doing what we can to stop doing that.
If people want to live in those places, we really need to get going on some new nuclear plants.
Isn't it ironic, that when you were filling up your gas tanks, sending money to Saudi Arabia for oil, that they then used that money to fund terrorism that has been blowing up stuff in New York, Madrid, and London?
Posted by muckdog at October 16, 2005 11:02 PMThe middle class are getting the crap taxed outta them - it's called the payroll tax - which pay for the tax breaks on the top earners and make up for the social security dollars that were never supposed to be spent.
Ironic that while WE were were filling up our tanks? Do you float to work? Do you work? You must be in great shape biking everywhere and being able to afford to have your groceries delivered...
quiet little one... just continue to waste time watching the market every minute, which is Bush's whole focus - and he can't manage that right because he gives absolutely NO weight to the average American. Once we flush Greenspan and hopefully wait out an uneventful 3 more years - we can get back on track and start repairing the damage and split caused by this administration.
Posted by Dishwashing Engineer at October 20, 2005 08:56 PM