I've been wondering about that myself.
Are those "cult" members, as you call them, going to remain more sympathetic to the Bush image and more likely to return?
Or are they do they feel so "burned" by Bush that they will never turn back to him?
I guess it comes down to why they are turning away from Bush. What issues?
If it's the economy or Iraq, in theory, it could turn around and he could get them back.
But if it's "character" or some other general perception that he doesn't care about the christian right, he may have lost them forever. Or he may have to do a Clintonesque "I have sinned" speech.
I looked through the details on that poll and saw nothing that spoke for either argument.
Kinda depends on Congress. I'd guess he's toast as far as getting anything done except maybe more tax cuts. Even a new war won't help him much, unless it's obviously a self-defensive one.
Posted by at November 4, 2005 08:23 AMNow, here is my question for the day: Does a 13-point shrinkage in the size of the cult represent a politically fatal problem for Bush from this point on?
All I know is that the number of people screaming at my bumperstickers and flipping me off while driving is significantly down.
The cult - the abusive, in-your-face, fuck-you-if-you-disagree-with-me cultists are either in hiding, going silent or dead. They're no longer in denial.
That is unless you're a blog troll.
Posted by idiosynchronic at November 4, 2005 08:24 AMDoes a 13-point shrinkage in the size of the cult represent a politically fatal problem for Bush from this point on?
No. He's a lame duck. And his appointments of Bernanke and Alito are popular on both sides of the spectrum.
One thing (I'm surprised) you didn't mention, was the polling on how folks feel about the economy.
Here we are with GDP at 3.8%, unemployment around 5%, real estate ownership at the highest levels ever and home equity having had a huge bull market, stock market (SP500) rallying from 800 to over 1200 since 2002, and technological gains giving Americans more choices, freedoms and information than ever.
Can you imagine what would happen if we slid into a recession? What if housing prices slid 50%? What if the stock market went back to 800? What if the unemployment rate went to 9%?
As an aside, with all the pension funds in crisis now, what would happen to them in the above scenario? What if those who are saying we're in a 1966-1982 type of economy are right, and stocks trend sideways for 16 years? I think the pension fund crisis is the crisis going forward.
Companies and public agencies didn't save enough, and overpromised what they can deliver. Employees didn't save enough. It's a snowball, and it's rolling down the hill.
Those who are saving, will be fine. Hope you folks are on target.
Posted by muckdog at November 4, 2005 08:26 AMmuck fuck I hope that someday you get your head removed from your ass and see at least a glimmer of reality..everything the chimp touches including the economy is fucked up..a president couldn't do a worse job if he tried which the chimp does appear to be trying to fuck everything up..in short you are just as fucked up as chimpy muck fuck...
Posted by headxray at November 4, 2005 08:42 AMThese polls are the Fitzmas presents we've all been waiting for!!!
Seriously -- until now, the average Red State Bushivik probably thought that Valerie Flame was the girlfriend of one of the guys on American Chopper.
Now, the truth comes out -- the corruption is uncovered, the conspiracies are unravelling, and the media has jumped off the BushCo lap and is biting their ankles.
Bush is in public opinion free fall, and will be waving at Nixon's 27% as he goes down, down, down . . .
Six years too late, but at least it's happening . . .
Posted by ck at November 4, 2005 09:08 AMThose who are saving, will be fine. Hope you folks are on target.
Well it was going fine, up until we had twins :).
At this point we are struggling with a decision. It appears as though we have an offer to get out of the country. The pessimist in me is screaming get the hell out before everything tanks. The optimist is hoping beyond hope that the adults will finally get their ass in gear and put in some serious preventative measures that will at the very least arrest what I see on the horizon (my guess is that it is 10 to 16 years out).
I would hate to leave family and friends and move the twins so far from grandparents et. al. But I don't want to be anywhere near this place if an economic meltdown happens.
Posted by Simp at November 4, 2005 09:34 AMI dunno, Simp, I've been thinking of leaving as well. But if all the goodies leave, then the baddies will still rampage all over the planet and there will be no place to hide.
Posted by iamcoyote at November 4, 2005 09:44 AMRealistically, the unemployment rate is not that good. 3500 people came out for 500 jobs at a new Wal-Mart here in AZ...that's sad. muck, please, look at the poverty rate instead, big increase! A lot of people who had unemployment, ran out of it, they don't count on the 5%.
Wait until the heating bills hit this winter. Ouch! Greenspan said so himself.
Greed, people, fucking greed!!
Posted by bbtb at November 4, 2005 09:48 AMthe poll had a more telling stat: Cheney approval is at 19%. As one blogger said, that may represent the real floor for Bush.
Posted by T2 at November 4, 2005 09:55 AMIf you have kids, and you're not upper middle class, definitely leave.
Even if our citizenry starts electing politicians who don't appeal to our dark sides, the damage to things like public education, public health, and civic infrastructure is done and not undoable anytime soon.
Unless you can pay for private school, from K-12 through college, and can pay $4500 out-of-pocket per year medical expenses ever year before insurance kicks in... you're much better off in almost any other First World Nation than here.
Posted by CaseyL at November 4, 2005 10:02 AMMuck, Until they count ALL unemployeed please stop using that fake number.
Posted by Goose1 at November 4, 2005 10:07 AMThat's the official unemployment number. Sorry if you're living in the world of make believe.
Wal-Mart continues to have tons of people lining up to work there. Would you rather have those folks sit around on the government dole? I think it's great that there are folks out there trying to get in the workforce. No doubt they'll gain some experience that will make them able to move up their career ladder down the road. Bravo.
Casey, the education system sucks. Especially in blue states. Who knows what the heck those folks are thinking. I think the teachers unions basically are screwin' the pooch. They have a conflict of interest. The worse schools do, the more they try to justify the next multi-billion bond at the election booth. And spending more hasn't improved education in CA.
I'd like to see some polls on how folks think the teachers unions are doing. (Just don't ask the pooch...)
Posted by muckdog at November 4, 2005 10:32 AMmuck, You don't get it...when Wal-Mart does not pay its employees livible wages and doesn't give them decent affordable benefits...they turn to the "government dole". That does not help the economy! Jeez, how many billions can a family have until they say, "Now...we have enough money". I'm confident things will turn around, Wal-Mart will eventually unionize. Even if I can't convince you to see the light that is burning a hole in your head!
Posted by bbtb at November 4, 2005 11:03 AM" Does a 13-point shrinkage in the size of the cult represent a politically fatal problem for Bush from this point on?"
No, witness the passage in the Senate of a bill that would allow drilling in ANWAR. The GOP still runs both houses of Congress and will still pass anything that pleases their corporate masters, even if it's unpopular with the people. They will continue to do what they want to do. For a weakened prez, he passed the Energy bill, the Highway bill, the Bankruptcy bill, the "tort reform" bill, all geared towards big biz. We all wish we were that weak. :-(
Posted by JTLA at November 4, 2005 11:14 AMThey need to start adding a category in polls where people can indicate they disapprove of Bush's job "performance" more than any president in history. The level of revulsion at this incompetent president is historic.
But I would note that none of this extreme disapproval is having any real political effect.
The Senate continued its voting pattern to destroy the Arctic Refuge yesterday, the poor-bashing House Budget Bill advances, as does the bill gutting the Endangered Species Act.
And Alito will likely be confirmed, dooming the country jurisprudentially for 30 years.
Bushco knows these bad numbers don't really matter to Republican strategy. So what if the people don't like the policies? It's not like this is some sort of democracy.
Posted by euzoius at November 4, 2005 11:24 AMMuck,
The problem is that working for Wally World is a welfare job for many people. The wallys tell their employees how to apply for food stamps and medicaid. Wallies also are heavy users of emergency rooms.
You should watch the documentary "The High Cost of Low Prices."
That's the official unemployment number. Sorry if you're living in the world of make believe.
That may well be the "official" unemployment number but we all know that it doesn't include those who have run out their unemployment benefits and still haven't found work. Similar in methodology to the CPI which omits food and energy costs because, well, they make the number fluctuate too much. It reminds me of how medical researchers don't like to do testing on female because their hormones skew the data.
Wal-Mart continues to have tons of people lining up to work there. Would you rather have those folks sit around on the government dole? I think it's great that there are folks out there trying to get in the workforce. No doubt they'll gain some experience that will make them able to move up their career ladder down the road. Bravo.
Wal Mart continues to encourage their employees to file for public assistance, food stamps, Medicaid, etc. Wal Mart seems to be America's most expensive luxury item. In our quest for cheap toilet paper and Rubbermaid, we've created a worksforce that is more dependent on the social safety net than ever. And isn't it just great how Wal Mart drives down labor costs for competing business? I can't wait for Greenwald's Wal Mart documentary. It should be better than the Enron documentary.
Posted by ann at November 4, 2005 12:11 PMI think I should point out again that just because more people oppose Bush doesn't necessarily mean they'll be with us. I've talked to some obscenely right-wing people who don't like Bush because he's not conservative enough. I don't know what this holds for the future.
I think that the drop could go back up pretty easily.
Posted by DukeRevolution at November 4, 2005 02:07 PMDoes it matter? He will not be running for President again. And you cannot determine future election results based upon GWB's poor performance in the polls.
Posted by Bagley at November 4, 2005 04:15 PMDuke,
If you'll notice the "right track" number is about 10 points lower than the "support Bush" number on a regular basis. Roughly 10% of the opposition to Bush is the hard right.
On Bush, I think he'll never get to 50% again. Notice that the Republicans are trying to tie in Democratic quotes about Iraqi WMD's. Their only defense at this point is to have been honestly wrong rather than dishonestly wrong. For a "security" president to be in this position on what is supposed to be his strongest issue is not good. Even, God forbid, another terrorist attack would cause as many political problems as it solves, the short term bump he would get would be followed by the questions "Why did this happen again?" and "Why is OBL still loose?"
I'm old enough to remember Watergate and I'm not saying that an impeachment or a resignation will happen, but he's a lame duck already. He's finished, it's just a question of how he goes out.
Posted by rlp at November 4, 2005 04:22 PMIn Ann's world, peanut butter would cost $15 a jar, because she'd want to make sure everybody made a living wage. Employers would pass the costs along to consumers. Consumers would demand wage hikes from their employers. And those making the living wage would find that it's no longer enough to live on.
Then, Ann would demand that we repeat the cycle.
I don't think she'd ever figure out why it doesn't work.
Posted by muckdog at November 4, 2005 04:33 PMAnd pricing the necessities of life outside the ability of Walmart workers to afford them is good for the profit line, isn't it, muck?
How long will GM survive if they continue to produce those 'profitable' Hummers that cost (at minimum) two years' income for a family of four at the poverty line? I was reading in Forbes today that GM will continue to produce such monstrosities, because - as the top GM exec is quoted in the article as saying - "I don't see us all driving hybrids in twenty years".
Sounds like he needs instead to be driving a push cart like the Mexican street vendors who are rapidly filling up our local parking lots.
Posted by pessimist at November 4, 2005 05:04 PMAnd how exactly would, say, a 20% wage increase (or thereabouts) result in a 500% increase in the cost of peanut butter?
Pretty persuasive.
Posted by euzoius at November 4, 2005 06:55 PMIf the GDP is 3% to 4% and yearly U.S. family median income dropped from $45,000 in 2000 to $43,000 in 2005 (compared to increasing from $39,000 in 1994 to 45,000 in 2000), what does that tell you? It tells me the U. S. public is getting screwed!!! Is the $300 billion Iraq Scam part of the 3% to 4% GDP, you bet it is!!!
Under Bush, the S&P 500 dropped from 1300 in 2000 to 800 in 2002. After five years, the S&P has failed to return to 2000 levels. That means, the U.S. public was screwed big time. The 401k's, other retirement accounts and most household portfolios took hits that will never be recovered. Since investing is based on compounding, the real losses are much larger than the difference in year-over-year dollar losses. The losses compound negatively. The losses will never be recovered.
The deceit and lies are required to hide the truth. The relationship between many of the trolls and the criminals and thieves running the government is similar to the relationship between pimps and whores!!! I'll give you a clue. The trolls aren't the Pimps!!! They believe what ever the pimps tell them. They also believe the bitch slaps are acts of affection.
Posted by smooth at November 5, 2005 01:59 AM