It's a done deal that Iran is the big winner in Glorious Leader's Iraq debacle, and in-the-know observers (like General Odom) predicted as much before the sand colored tanks of the US Army went across the berms in March 2003.
But I don't think there's going to be much chance at "stabilizing" this fake WW I-created "country". Instead, over time, with varying levels of violence, a shi-ite mega-state or will evolve.
And how the region's sunni's take to that will be anyone's guess.
Don't stop reading Juan Cole just yet!
Posted by euzoius at November 28, 2005 05:24 PMEven if the Shia and Sunni get together and party like its 1999, there is still the little situation vis-a-vis Turkey and the new Republic of Kurdistain.
So many minefields, so little time.
Posted by SnarkyShark at November 28, 2005 05:51 PMVery perceptive Steve. In the long run what really matters to America is NOT controlling the oil, it's the effective discrediting of the belief by the PNAC group that they can control the world. America is just one country and must live in the world. That is even more true than ever due to the simple mathmatical truth that we can't afford an empire long term anymore than anyone else can. The belief in exceptionalism can have good short term results, but just like a sports team can't play over its head forever, reality must be accounted for because what goes up will come down, and sooner than expected.
Posted by rlp at November 28, 2005 05:54 PM"I am just glad that a sense of realism has crept into the administration about the need to talk with both the Iranians and the insurgents..."
The only realism that has crept in is an awareness that the GOP is in deep shit for the forthcoming 2006 elections, and they have no choice but to change course in Iraq.
Posted by hill billy at November 28, 2005 06:27 PMThe Shia will NEVER stand for less than total control. The Sunnis will NEVER live under Shia rule. And the Shia have decades of spilled blood to pay back.
There is too much history, too much fear, too much anger. The civil war is already on, albeit at a fairly low level. As soon as we leave it will get worse. But this will happen if we leave next week, next year or next decade. So we need to leave now (although the Dems need to let the American people lead on this and let the GOP find its own way out in order to avoid being blamed for the inevitable open civil war that will erupt when we leave early)
What most Americans can't begin to bend their mind around is that we must hope for this civil war to go on for as long as possible. Because the day it ends Iraq and the worlds second largest oil reserves will in effect be run and controlled by the terrorist Mulahs in Tehran. This will be a disaster for the west.
Sadly, and perversely ironic is the reality that at this point we should start considering arming the Sunni insurgents who are currently murdering Americans. We are quickly going to be looking for somebody to keep a lid on the Shia in Iraq. Perhaps Saddam wants his old job back?
As hard as it to admit, as much of a murderous bastard as Saddam was/is he was PERFECT for what the west needed in that role. Secular, concerned only with keeping his power (mostly from the Iranians), a firewall against and sworn enemy Al Queda and radical islamic terrorist, contained, no history or even a whiff of a predisposition to attack the US, toothless and pretty happy to live out his days in his castles, eating his fine food and being a dictator.
Yes Bush and Cheney et all lied to bring us here. And yes under the spirit and letter of the law they should be impeached, arrested and put in prison for a very long time. But in the end the responsibility lies with the American people fore being so lazy, ill-informed, and unaware that they had little to say as we hurtled toward stated goals that were illogical, impossible, and sure to be completely unattainable.
BushCo however were not going for the stated goals. They were going for keeping their own power, enriching themselves and their political supporters. The American people should have stopped them. This was such an easy result to forsee that there can be no excuse for pleading ignorance.
As some French guy said a long time ago, in a democracy the people get exactly the government they deserve.
The Shia will NEVER stand for less than total control. The Sunnis will NEVER live under Shia rule. And the Shia have decades of spilled blood to pay back.
There is too much history, too much fear, too much anger. The civil war is already on, albeit at a fairly low level. As soon as we leave it will get worse. But this will happen if we leave next week, next year or next decade. So we need to leave now (although the Dems need to let the American people lead on this and let the GOP find its own way out in order to avoid being blamed for the inevitable open civil war that will erupt when we leave early)
What most Americans can't begin to bend their mind around is that we must hope for this civil war to go on for as long as possible. Because the day it ends Iraq and the worlds second largest oil reserves will in effect be run and controlled by the terrorist Mulahs in Tehran. This will be a disaster for the west.
Sadly, and perversely ironic is the reality that at this point we should start considering arming the Sunni insurgents who are currently murdering Americans. We are quickly going to be looking for somebody to keep a lid on the Shia in Iraq. Perhaps Saddam wants his old job back?
As hard as it to admit, as much of a murderous bastard as Saddam was/is he was PERFECT for what the west needed in that role. Secular, concerned only with keeping his power (mostly from the Iranians), a firewall against and sworn enemy Al Queda and radical islamic terrorist, contained, no history or even a whiff of a predisposition to attack the US, toothless and pretty happy to live out his days in his castles, eating his fine food and being a dictator.
Yes Bush and Cheney et all lied to bring us here. And yes under the spirit and letter of the law they should be impeached, arrested and put in prison for a very long time. But in the end the responsibility lies with the American people fore being so lazy, ill-informed, and unaware that they had little to say as we hurtled toward stated goals that were illogical, impossible, and sure to be completely unattainable. Personally I saw this exact scenario a mile away and three years ago. Anybody who had read more than 20 minutes of the history of Iraq and even a passing sense of human nature would have as well.
BushCo however were not going for the stated goals. They were going for keeping their own power, enriching themselves and their political supporters. The American people should have stopped them. This was such an easy result to forsee that there can be no excuse for pleading ignorance.
As some French guy said a long time ago, in a democracy the people get exactly the government they deserve.
Chimpy McFlightSuit got his marching orders from the PTB. Can't let any repub seats fall from the august legislative chambers. Ergo, pretend to give the unwashed assholes called the citizenry what they think they want today (until the PTB tells them differently).
Posted by Thor Likes Pizza at November 28, 2005 07:30 PMDivide that fucker into the three countries that it already is. And leave. If they want to fight it out amongst themselves, let em.
Then, get down to the business of punishing the profiteers and their political servant BushCorp. Retribution must occur.
Posted by God Of War at November 28, 2005 07:39 PMI expect that we'll see more of these undersecretaries et al starting to come forward to diss Great Leader....interesting watching them burn 'em up!
Posted by Goyo at November 28, 2005 07:40 PMThen, get down to the business of punishing the profiteers and their political servant BushCorp. Retribution must occur.
Word
Posted by SnarkyShark at November 28, 2005 08:05 PMIf the Iraqis want the country, then let THEM fight for it. I'm with GOW, although I suspect that the Turks might be unhappy about a Kurdish state on their border.
Posted by weinerdog43 at November 28, 2005 08:11 PMI suspect that the Turks might be unhappy about a Kurdish state on their border.
It would make Turkey's 1974 invasion of Cyprus look like a slow motion picnic.
Posted by rlp at November 28, 2005 08:52 PMTruth, I've seen nothing from you but intelligent insight. Stop it or the trolls might not be able to respond and entertain us anymore.
Posted by DukeRevolution at November 28, 2005 08:55 PMDukeRevolution, LOL. How right you are. I see the trolls scratching their heads saying to themselves "what did he say?"
Posted by Judith at November 29, 2005 07:44 AM"This comes as our military leaders on the ground seemingly have finally figured out how to secure parts of Iraq one area at a time, and transfer those areas from our control to that of the Iraqis themselves while beefing up our civilian support activitie."
Sir: You have swollowed the propaganda that the military controls what's happenning on the ground. In fact there are no 'areas' to turn over to the Iraqis. The military doesn't control the ground let alone areas - most GIs are moved about in-country by helicopter as ground transport is not safe - the road from Bahgdad to the airport is not secure - two days ago a special up-armored transport with US congressman on-board was forced into a ditch on that airport road injuring at least two people. Plans call for troops being replaced by flying bombs for 'beefing up the civilian support activities'one presumes to protect oil assets.
I wonder when helicopter evacuation the Green Zone will be explained as turning over the seat of government to the Iraqis?
You are too gulible, believing politians.
Posted by Joe at November 29, 2005 08:39 AMHello Mr. Truth,
I think that your observations and analysis are very good, however, I am not so sure why you think that Iranian influence and control in Iraq would be such an unmitigated disaster for the west.
The Iranian Mulahs already control one country with a lot of oil. Adding the Basra oil fields to their inventory will not be dramatically different from the current situation. Also, you are probably overstating the amount of control the Iranians will ultimately have. The Persians in Iran and Arabs in Iraq may share a religion, but they are worlds appart culturally. The Iranians will help the Iraqi Shia hold onto power, but I doubt that the Iraqi Shia leadership will bow to Iranian authority any longer than they absolutely have to.
I don't think that we should wish a civil war on Iraq just to spite Iran.
Posted by Growth Factor at November 29, 2005 12:19 PMI just realized that I should not assume that The Truth is a Mr.
Sorry for any offense.
Posted by Growth Factor at November 29, 2005 12:22 PMI am just glad that a sense of realism has crept into the administration about the need to talk with both the Iranians and the insurgents
when did you start channelling Joe Biden?
There in no more "sense of realism" in the White House than there ever was in terms of the Middle East. Bush's strategy remained "stay the course" until public sentiment went so far against that policy that GOP congresscritters sent Bush a message "change course, or lose congress."
The real danger is not that things will deteriorate in Iraq, but that will show short term improvement. Bush will see this as a vindication of his policies, and we'll soon be seeing stories about "Syria's support of terrorists" and/or "the Iranian WMD threat..." as a precusor to attacks that are part of Bush's overall middle-east strategy.
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