If you add in the 2% dividend rate of the SP500, the total return was around 5%.
But that bull market, which saw the Dow rise 1,400 percent in less than 18 years, is so over. The odds of seeing anything like it again in our lifetime are, at best, remote.
Not up to speed on history, are ya? The market tends to move in cycles that last 16-18 years. 1966-1982 was a longer term bear market. 1982-1999 was a longer term bull market. Since 2000, we've been in a longer term bear market.
Within each longer term period, there are shorter or intermediate term swings up and down. The first bear move went from 2000-2002, and the first bull move went from 2002-present.
I don't know what your plans are, but mine are to sell equities near the top of this bull cycle, like I did in early 2000. The SP500 is up around 60% (including dividends) the past 3 years. Not bad gains.
Posted by muckdog at January 3, 2006 12:19 PMTo understand the significance of the increased GDP, think of inequality. What troubles Chinese planners is the rising Gini coefficient - the measure by which economists estimate inequality, and many argue that it is worse in China today than it was before the communist revolution.
Of course, millions of Chinese people have been lifted out of dire poverty since Beijing began economic reforms but today, the wealthiest 10% of China's urban households still own 45% of urban wealth while the poorest 10% own less than 1.4%. Annual average urban income last year was 9,400 yuan ($1,164 in dollars ) and rural income was as low as 3,000 yuan $371 in dollars .
If you add in the 2% dividend rate of the SP500, the total return was around 5%.
Just where did you pull out that factoid? Nothing I've read about the markets ever discusses this. If you have a link, produce it!
But that bull market, ...
Not up to speed on history, are ya?
This is a quote from Allan Sloan, so if you take issue with this, talk to him.
Posted by pessimist at January 3, 2006 01:20 PMMuck,
I thought we already covered this "if I can do it, anybody can" bullshit?
Your disconnect between how this economy is treating the likes of you vs. the majority of Americans is simply astounding. Long term valuing of capital over labor is not going to bode well for U.S. economy as a whole. Though it should do wonders for a low wage service economy.
But then again, you (unintentionally, I think) show disdain for anyone that doesn't have wealth. You remind me of this LTE I read a couple of years ago. This lady wrote in bitching about her taxes and said: "Last year I paid over $120,000 in taxes and I'm not even wealthy!"
Posted by Simp at January 3, 2006 02:06 PMIf you add in the 2% dividend rate of the SP500, the total return was around 5%.Posted by muckdog
Average dividend yield for all S&P 500 stocks = 1.59% (Average yield on non-zero dividend stocks = 2.06% [scroll down]. As for the rest of the bragging, someone correctly anticipated another Republican bear market.
Posted by Mike at January 3, 2006 03:31 PMP'mist, didn't think you were interested in factoids. Just check out the yield on the ticker SPY over at Yahoo finance. There's your yield. If Allan Sloan made that comment, then I know enough to recommend that folks avoid reading Allan Sloan.
Simp, I know NOT EVERYONE is doing well in this economy. The overwhelming majority are doing very well. We have the stats on home ownership, net wealth, employment, etc. The poor will always be poor. Even in 2000, Al Gore was complaining about the poor being unable to afford the good life, and this was after 8 glorious years of Clinton/Gore's Heaven on Earth. Regarding your comments on "the likes of" me, I just got there the old fashioned way, by reading books. You can learn a lot from books. Try it sometime. I read about 1-2 financial books a month. Sometimes more. I'm still on Jeremy Siegal's Future for Investors. Pretty good so far.
Mike, that Slate article correctly points out that the stock market has performed better under Democrats than Republicans. But that's not the entire story. The market has performed well under both, so you can pretty much eliminate politics from market performance over the long term.
Posted by muckdog at January 3, 2006 04:47 PMMuckdog, facts don't matter to liberals no matter how many you give them. It's all about emotion.
Besides, if only one person was found to be suffering during this great ecomony, then the liberals would deem it a failure.
Posted by David at January 4, 2006 03:54 AMBy muck's own admission it's a "longer term bear market". "Great economy"...David?
Posted by bbtb at January 4, 2006 07:09 AMYes David, liberals (in general) don't let the facts sway them from their preconceived opinions.
The economy is great now. Again, even if a longer term bear market is in effect, there will be times the market does well. Just like from 1966-1982.
Posted by muckdog at January 4, 2006 08:21 AMThis economy must be a failure! David is suffering from cognitive dissonance over the news that the economy is failing miserably!
Posted by pessimist at January 4, 2006 08:30 AMmuck, Is the economy really that great? Or is it your innate ability to take command of a poor situation and make the best of it. I believe your good at what you do. Much like the current administration is at raping the country!
Posted by bbtb at January 4, 2006 10:07 AMMore statistical/historical bs - c'mon man (muckdiver), they can go either way - we've been reading your economic/investment crap for so long. I make investments all the time. You kept piping up about how great things were and two months ago I responded (a little late maybe in a couple of comment links) that you WILL NOT see a year end rally. Your "info" looks to me like MACD or Bollinger Band cripe - They self adjust - I can have beautiful indications of upside - that's great, but it's ALL psychology AND REALITY. Technical analysis will self adjust NO MATTER what happens to a stock. They have their place but there's only so much you can say about what has "taken place" and what "signs" they indicate. 'History', which seems to mean something to you, is the same.
You do not have enough data to say anything ABOUT anything. We are all still babies in this country - you keep looking to the past and 'reacting' and I'll look forward to the current environment and trade from that platform. If there WERE a great deal of data - I'd write a nice neural net trading oracle and have my PocketPC phone set to 'auto-trade' and make jillions.
NO DOUBT 2005 was tough - get ready to sweat a REAL difficult trading year. 2006 - bring it on. I like the fact that there are many of YOU that pipe up like institutional investors - I can be a contrarian and it makes my job so much easier. Are you sure you don't work for CNBC?
David - quiet - there's no emotion here - just the cold hard facts that things are not as we are led to believe... 5% unemployment and things are humming along perfectly? pfft - that's enough proof for me...
Posted by dishwashing engineer at January 4, 2006 11:59 PM