well, precisely. The Iraqis who have won the right to govern have no intention of keeping US Troops there. That is why Bush tried first with Chalabi, the Allawi, to install a puppet. The interesting point in this mess will come when the Iraqis tell us to go, and that means all the "infidels". When we refuse (at least during the Bush years) the real jihad will start.
Posted by T2 at April 27, 2006 10:17 AMYou nailed it Steve.
The draw down will be greeted with much fanfare "coincidentally" around the mid terms.
Except Bush has made it crystal clear we're not leaving Iraq on his watch. I still remember during the debates where Kerry mentioned the bases. Bush's silence was deafening.
The problem as Matt Yglesias pointed out a while back is that the front running Dems for 2008 don't want to leave either. They just want to do it better.
I think this is best understood in the context set out by Swopa's typically incisive post on the Rumsfeld-Rice visit. To wit:
The only difference in sending Rice and Rummy is to make the intended U.S. pressure "show of support" highly visible -- which has the counterproductive effect of tempting the Iraqis to look strong by rebuffing them, rather than like obedient lapdogs by doing what they say.
These guys simply don't know the first thing about international politics. The anti-Midas touch.
Posted by KM at April 27, 2006 01:41 PMSome reports indicated that we jettisoned Jaafari because he indicated that he was going to demand significant troop withdrawals in the near future.
Troop levels are entirely manipulable, and don't make clear what our long term intentions are. We sure seem to be spending a lot of money on a network of "enduring" bases for an occupier that intends a complete pull-out in the next couple of years. But there's a mountain of defense spending utterly and corruptly wasted every month, so even that is not completely dispositive.
Should be quite a show over there in the next few years. I would not advocate volunteering, even if Nero Jr and von Rumsfeld will give your kid a foreclosed house in Georgia as a signing bonus, or a "get out of bankruptcy for free" card.
Posted by euzoius at April 27, 2006 01:49 PMRumsfeld and Rice visit Iraq and our poor troops could care less and who could blame them:
Here's the story. Check it out. But I warn ya...It'll piss you off:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/04/27/damon.baladtroops/index.html
Posted by James at April 27, 2006 02:47 PMI am not so sure that this whole thing wasn't scripted anyway. How convenient is it that just before the mid-term season swings into full force, the "Iraqis" line up and tell Rumy and Rice that Iraq is so well off that we can start pulling our troops out ASAP.
You can bet your Dinar that the repugs are going to start referencing those remarks in their explaination on how great Iraq 'really' is doing.
Posted by 007age at April 27, 2006 04:42 PMLeave? Right.
I mean Riiiiigghhht (/sarc)
When pigs fly.
Posted by degustibus at April 27, 2006 06:09 PM