I agree with your assessment, however I must make another observation about the polls that Deaniacs fail to pay sufficient attention to, the fact that however you slice the polls most democratic voters as well as most americans support candidates that back the iraq resolution and consistently support the middle class tax cuts which means that dean will represent minority ( a loud and passionate minority but a minority none the less) within his own party. never mind the independents and as i keep saying if the economy is muddling along and Iraq is slightly better or worse, the dean policies will be non starters. by the way the good doctors way of disparaging other democrats i can assure you is being noted by their supporters.

This is very interesting stuff. Let me make the following suggestion:

Survey USA polls are conducted by automatic dialers. People participate by listening to a recorded message and pushing buttons on their phones. This method has been criticized by many, but SUSA's results tend to be pretty close to others.

But, this survey method is likely to yield a higher concentration of motivated voters (i.e. voters with an opinion). The share of undecideds in the Zogby poll was 28%. In the SUSA poll, it was only 5%.

Since the responses for Dean and Gephardt are fairly close accross the polls, it appears that Kerry in the SUSA poll is getting a fair share of those who were undecided in Zogby.

If Kerry's support was broad but shallow, you'd expect the SUSA poll to look like Zogby's results (Kerry supporters would hang up on the machine before responding).

Instead, I think SUSA is picking up motivated "others," i.e. people who have strong opinions that they don't want either Dean or Gephardt (mainly).

If this is right, (and it might not be), I think Kerry has some hope. He's been running as an anti-Dean lately, and it may be working. Unfortunately SUSA didn't do fav/unfav ratings so it's harder to confirm.

...which means that dean will represent minority ( a loud and passionate minority but a minority none the less) within his own party.

Certainly not within his own party...
Zogby Iowa poll: A plurality (45%) think it is important that the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who opposed the war in Iraq, while 31% think their standard bearer should be someone who supported the war. Nearly one-fourth (24%) is not sure.
Zogby NH poll: New Hampshire primary voters think it is more important that Democrats nominate a candidate who opposed the war in Iraq (46%) than a candidate who supported it (36%).

IMO Iraq is more likely to be an albatross around Bush's neck than a feather in his cap. On tax cuts, Dean will be doing more than repeal Bush's tax cuts. His own plan will include tax simplification and will reduce the burden on the working class, paid for by removing corporate loopholes.

moraks- I think it's dangerous to make that leap. There are more differences in the candidates than just one or 2 issues (important though they may be).

Kerry, for example, has strong appeal among enviros who may be against the war but poll for Kerry anyway. There may be some prowar voters who don't think Kerry is exciting enough to win and are polling for Dean. On certain issues, Gephardt is closer to Dean while he's closer to Kerry on the war (and others). In a way, you are lumping voters together according to what you think is important, which may not be what they think is important.

Dean is doing the right thing to win the primary, appealing to the Democratic base. Kerry started off as the leader and (I think) switched into general election mode too early and has got himself stuck in the center and outflanked.

I've said it before, I like Kerry a lot, but I don't think he's doing what it takes to win the primary (my blog has a pair of long posts on it if anyone's interested).

As for Kerry's furtunes in Iowa, it is hard for polls to pick up who will show up at caucuses. Gephardt and Dean will know who their supporters are and will hold their hands and make sure they make it to the caucus. How's Kerry's organization? Does he have a strong voter contact / identification operation, and a way of getting his voters off the couch at 7 PM to go to their caucuses? That's where it's won or lost, and that is where Gephardt and Dean have their strengths.

Another factor that works against Kerry is the 15% threshold. Gephardt and Dean will probably have over 15% at damn near every one of Iowa's 2500 caucuses. Kerry's support is closer to the bubble, so he'll probably miss the cutoff at alot of precincts.

I should add, the average high temperature in Des Moines in January is 29 degrees, the average low is 11 degrees. To get people out to their caucus, at night during the dinner hour no less, means you need either alot of dedicated supporters or alot of dedicated campaign workers and volunteers.

Quantifying a caucus is like capturing smoke with a butterfly net.

In a caucus your priority can be supporting a candidate you like or denying a higher finish to one you don’t like. In ’76 Mo Udall supporters threw in with Jimmy Carter to deny victory to Scoop Jackson.

What’s certain is that when the Dean or Gep campaigns encounter a Kerry or Edwards supporter they are mighty, mighty interested in that person’s second choice.

I will only repeat what many others have said, that it is far more useful to analyse the differences within the same poll from month to month (or however often they do it) rather than compare different polls with each other that were run at the same time. I would rather know whether Kerry dropped from 15 to 9 in the one poll and from 24 to 19 in the other or whether one poll rose while the other dropped.

I would also suggest that the organizations that are clearly organized and motivated in Iowa are probably undercounted, while those who don't are overcounted. Thus I would expect Dean and Gephardt (at least until his staff attacked the labor movement the other day) to have a higher percentage than most polls show.

Incidentally....Kerry? Hope? Are you kidding? He's toast.