It is hard to imagine that Bush would attack before the election, given what a gamble it is. What if he attacks and the Iranians seal the Strait of Hormuz and/or sink some US ships with their Sunburn missles, humiliating us and causing huge casualties? What if oil goes to $100 a barrel? More likely he will attack after the election, thinking he can put the Dems on the spot and cement GOP majorities for years. But the blowback might just do the opposite.
I tend to think Billmon is right that the Iranians will respond in a measured, drawn-out way.
Posted by Mimikatz at September 23, 2006 11:54 AMOf course it would -- just like the war in Iraq was more palatable (ie. possible at all) because of 9/11. It can't be an attack in the U.S. -- that would make Bush look bad for not protecting the homeland. It'll be a horrific attack in western Europe, probably at one of our embassies with a significant number of Americans killed.
And of course, the "smoking gun" will be traced to Iran. They'll have learned from 9/11, too, where their linkage of Al Qaeda with Saddam was way too flimsy. This time there will probably be a dead Iranian terrorist or two, conveniently recognizable (as Zarqawi was) for purposes of positive identification.
Wouldn't Bush have to get Congress' OK to attack Iran? I can't imagine they'd support it after the disaster that is Iraq. Nor would the public.
Posted by todd at September 23, 2006 05:08 PMThe Israeli attack on Hezbollah was a dress rehearsal for attacking Iran- but it failed- so....I think the U.S. attacking Iran was an option before that debacle- it isn't now.
Of course, I could be wrong since I'm assuming the Bushites can think.
Posted by evagrius at September 23, 2006 08:07 PMTodd, I can't imagine Congress not giving Bush what he wants. Future predictions are based on past events.
Posted by Judith at September 23, 2006 08:25 PMOh, look. The IDF's chief education officer, Gen. Ilan Harari, says Israel lost its needless war in Lebanon.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/766154.html
Maybe he means, despite the customarily savage application of vastly superior hardware and overwhelming firepower, the sacrifice of lives, reputation, resources and national interest yielded no US/Israeli military advantage or political objective. Not one. Difficult concepts for primitive flag patriots to recognize, let alone accept.
Hizb'Allah still stands.
Goldwasser, Regev and Shalit are still prisoners.
Big surprise: where force failed, more force also failed. Who could've predicted that a mountain of binational suffering would produce crater of achievement? But then of what value is the opinion of Gen. Harari, an infantry brigade and battalion commander with extensive field experience, compared to that of our trolls, chickenhawk commentariat and their national security elite role models. Pray the candid humble soldier/educator Harari enlightens us further in the realities of modern citizenship.
Please note. Paragraph 8 in the Harari story describes the IDF's extensive intelligence on the telephone habits of its own officer corps. Sadly, it stands in complete contrast to its mystification of Hizb'Allah activities. Clearly, the IDF officer corps is quite pissed about something and is kvetching to the media. What could be troubling them so? Perhaps their second humiliating battlefield failure in Lebanon.
Let's face it. Hizb'Allah is the world's first 4GW army to demonstrate its battlefield prowess. Twice. If Israel's Lebanon fiasco is template for our Iran attack, and it is, America's high flying non-negotiable lifestyle is headed for a very hard landing. Soon. Goodbye easy credit, happy motoring, big box, suburban asteroid belt. Abruptly. Overnight. No realistic sustainable smooth transition. Due to the real revolution in military affairs, people living atop "our" resources now have effective defense and, having long hated our policies, need no longer tolerate them:
See especially Note 2.
There is no military solution. None
Only honest negotiation can resolve our grievances.
It's way past time for the US, UK and Israeli officer corps to recall their oath of commission and recognize the near, domestic, radical reactionary enemy for the far greater danger it is and has always been. It's time to act in the direction of and proportionate to the threat. Legally. Lawfully. Wisely. Mercilessly. Now.
Otherwise, our future is the INS Hanit and the smashed Merkavas of Wadi Saluki writ large. And a demonstration that Americans are in no way inferior to Algerians, Vietnamese, Afghans, Iraqis, Lebanese and Iranians in their ability to learn, master and advance the practice of 4GW when circumstance necessitates.
Bush has the mind of a suicide bomber...and we are all in the vehicle called the United States of America with Bush, the suicide bomber, at the wheel.
Bush, you see, has a death wish. He has bought into the same death wish mentality of the evangelical Christians, with their craven craving for the Rapture. A craving that has driven them to endanger the lives of their own children, with George W. Bush, the suicide bomber, at the wheel.
So, Bush is going to order a suicide bombing of Iran.
Why do Bush, Cheney and the neo-con Republicans hate America so much?
Why do the evangelical Christians hate America so much?
Why does Bush, Cheney, the neo-con Republicans and the evangelical Christians hate the children of America so much?
Suicide bombers. Death wishers. Blind leaders and blind followers.
Aaaah, for a return to the great years of the Clinton presidency when the death wishers were just attacking the presidency and not in control of the White House, with a suicide bomber sitting at the wheel.
Posted by The Oracle at September 24, 2006 04:08 PMOf course a war would go over better if there were some terrorist action preceding it. But half the population is already convinced that Iran is led by a madman and will have a nuclear weapon by the day after tomorrow.
There's a very good chance that we're already lost.
Posted by Delia at September 24, 2006 04:23 PM