House: A Democratic pickup of 15
Senate: A net Democratic pickup of 6
Holy crap...if the Dems get any less than thirty seats net in the House we will hear nothing for the next several weeks except what losers the Dems are and that it should have been a tsunami and these people might as well throw out their Party, blah, blah, blah.
I predict a media coverage of the disenfranchisement (MSNBC just covered the flyers in PA that make it look like the election has been cancelled and this a.m. they covered the robo-call scheme) and the fraud - all flips towards the GOP.
I predict that the media will cover so much of it (or just enough) that the backlash from the Dems will be to get out to the polls in even larger numbers.
I think that people are smarter than they seem. I have been surprised that my contact with people lately outside of my normal circle has been overwhelmingly people who are absolutely disgusted with the GOP.
House: Net gain 35-40
Senate: Net gain 5
I think if we win big the GOP will say we cheated!
Posted by goose1 at November 6, 2006 01:29 PM
STEVE - TALK ABOUT PLAYING IT SAFE!
House 25
Senate 7
senate + 4
house +25
if dems get 5 senate seats, specter goes (I), caucuses with dems.
if specter switches, then so does nighthorse
Posted by Zang at November 6, 2006 01:37 PMHouse: A Democratic pickup of 20
Senate: A net Democratic pickup of 7
Unless all these voting machine problems of the last few elections continue ... in which case I will change my outlook to:
House: A Democratic pickup of 1
Senate: A net Democratic pickup of 1
At which time I will start researching how to start my own election controlling, er I mean election building software company to help promote "fair elections"....
Posted by KJS at November 6, 2006 01:39 PMHouse: D +26
Senate: D +5
And a whole new constituency of citizens suddenly possessed with great concern for electronic voting: Republicans.
Posted by Betamax Guillotine at November 6, 2006 01:40 PMWow, I can't believe I am less pessimistic than you Steve (never thought that possible ;~P)....but here goes.
House.... 20
Senate.... 5 by winning(Maryland, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Jersey)
My next in wild card long shot thinking for Senate ...Tester beats Burns in Montana for another Dem pickup too but also very possible that Rhode Island may end up with Chaffee-(I'm sorry for all bad things I did as a repukelican please forgive me by voting for me commercials running) beating Whitehouse the Democratic challenger.
We'll see...no tidal wave...but definitely a large rogue wave breaker in the house.
Posted by emal at November 6, 2006 01:40 PMSenate.... 5 by winning (Maryland, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Jersey)
Those are my 5 too, but it's possible we will take Montana, making it a net Democratic gain of 6.
The Montana governor is a Democrat who enjoys a 70% job approval number. He's a huge supporter of Jon Tester, so that could be enough to unseat the lunatic GOPer, Sen. Conrad Burns.
Posted by Christopher at November 6, 2006 01:48 PMSenate +4
House +25
Governors +8
And 2008 will finish the realignment that begins tomorrow. There will still be the white house and a few more senate seats to take.
Posted by herbal tee at November 6, 2006 01:52 PMHouse: Net gain 28-30
Senate: Net gain 5
THIS JUST IN
We may pickup Virginia too. Making it a 7 seat gain for Democrats in the Senate.
Democrat Jim Webb has surged ahead of Republican George Allen in the last poll of the campaign, conducted for News-7 by SurveyUSA.
The survey shows Webb with 52% of the likely voters, with 44% going to Allen.
In five previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, the race was a virtual tie with Allen slightly ahead.
http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=5639356
Posted by Christopher at November 6, 2006 01:55 PMHouse.... 20
Senate.... 5 by winning(Maryland, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Jersey)
Isn't that a net gain of 3? MD and NJ are currently held by democrats.
I'm not predicting anything except law suits, confusion and chaos come Wednesday morning. And I almost hope the dems don't take the senate or as someone else said, everything will be the dems' fault 24/7 for the next 2 years. I also think people may just have had enough of one party control and we'd be more likely to win the presidency if Congress is split.
Posted by CG at November 6, 2006 02:06 PMSenate +5
House +26
Governors +6
I think if we win big the GOP will say we cheated!
goose1 @ 01:29 PM
They can flatter me all they want, I'm still not going to hang with them on my own time. So there!
House: D +19 (cheated out of another 10)
Senate: D +5 (cheated out of another 2)
Congratulations Chairmen Skelton, Waxman, Lantos (Ugh), Conyers, Rangel and Chairwoman Harman.
Don't be stingy with them subpoenas and remember, we got the Military Commissions Act now, so don't be afraid to waterboard their ass if they talk back or otherwise misbehave.
Unless all these voting machine problems of the last few elections continue ... in which case I will change my outlook to:
House: A Democratic pickup of 1
Senate: A net Democratic pickup of 1
Posted by KJS at November 6, 2006 01:39 PM
I would say, if the election fraud persists, they'll be more clever about it than that. It'll be...
House: Democrats +13
Senate: Democrats +3
That way, the wave existed, but just wasn't big enough for Democrats to perform as predicted, and Republicans hold a credible-to-the-gullible, narrow majority in both houses. And Bush will declare a second mandate to blow up the world.
Posted by Liveliest Crib at November 6, 2006 02:23 PMif dems get 5 senate seats, specter goes (I), caucuses with dems.
Posted by benjoya at November 6, 2006 01:33 PM
Not a chance. Though if the Dems get 6, Lieberman pretends to caucus with them so hustle for chairmanships, but votes with the Republicans enough to allow Darth Cheney to break ties.
Posted by Liveliest Crib at November 6, 2006 02:28 PMAll pre-election polls now obsolete.
I always get optimistic after I get my recorded call from THE BIG DOG. Sooooooo.........
SENATE: DEMS +6
HOUSE: DEMS+ 29
Posted by CG at November 6, 2006 02:06 PM ,
----House.... 20
----Senate.... 5 by winning(Maryland, Ohio, Rhode ----Island, Pennsylvania, New Jersey)
Isn't that a net gain of 3? MD and NJ are currently held by democrats.
Correct.
I'm not predicting anything except law suits, confusion and chaos come Wednesday morning.
I fear you might be right.
And I almost hope the dems don't take the senate or as someone else said, everything will be the dems' fault 24/7 for the next 2 years.
I'd rather they take the Senate than the House so we could impede the selection of judges and prevent ridiculous treaties. And I've always maintained that the Democrats should have aggressively gone after the Senate. They'll be kicking themselves on Wednesday when they get 5 seats - Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, Missouri and Rhode Island. (Of course, I hope I'm wrong and that we take Virginia and Tennessee too.) As for everything being the Dem's fault, well, we might as well never win for fear of taking blame.
I also think people may just have had enough of one party control and we'd be more likely to win the presidency if Congress is split.
The 2008 presidential race will have little to do with what's happening now. It will have everything to do with what's happening in September and October of 2008, and that is most definitely unpredictable.
I'll go out on a limb here since no beer was wagered and assuming the vote-rigging by the GOP is not outrageous.
House +47
Senate +7
Governors +7
Posted by Alex at November 6, 2006 02:45 PMWhich makes me wonder if the Dems win big, will the GOP use the excuse that the Diebold electronic voting machines couldn't be trusted. ;)
Posted by Alex at November 6, 2006 02:47 PM"if specter switches, then so does nighthorse"
And so would Lincoln Chaffee if he retains his seat.
Posted by Alex at November 6, 2006 02:50 PMI hope I'm wrong, but I think the fascists will steal it, again.
Posted by Thomas Ware at November 6, 2006 02:56 PMa rigged electronic voting scam in most states
martial law
overly optimistic? you think?
House - 27
Senate - 7
do I win a pony if I'm right?
Posted by OldCoastie at November 6, 2006 03:08 PMWatch for a tidal wave if Kyl loses the Senate in AZ, along with J.D. Hayworth and Rick Renzi losing House seats. (Diebold in AZ.)
House = +35
Senate = +6
If not, a normal election of the usual predicted gains:
House = +20
Senate = +4-5
Rigged like a MoFo:
House = 13
Senate = 3
If this is the case, watch for the white house to gloat: "I earned capital, I'm gonna spend it"! MSM, will scratch their asses and wonder how could all the experts be so wrong!? When we will know it's fraud. The trolls will be laughing, knowing it's fraud as well!
And plenty of people will march in the streets protesting!
Tomorrow night will tell the tale if we have a return to democracy in America with a Democratic majority elected in the House of Representatives, or if the GOP repeats their electronic computerized treasonous hacking, rigging and stealing of the 2006 elections and thus follows in the goosesteps of their election thefts in 2000, 2002 and 2004. .
In a tidal wave of anti-Bush and anti-GOP feeling, the Democrats will win 82* or more net plus seats, enough to give them a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives. (* minus whatever the GOP decides to electronically steal by rigging the Diebold and ES&S (Electronically Smirked and Stolen) vote tabulating machines: note: the GOP may give up on the House and concentrate on rigging the several close Senate races…)
Democrats will win 7* Senate seats and thus get back a majority in the Senate.
Cheers.
Folks, Specter will not switch sides. Chafee will not switch sides, though it won't matter since he'll lose. And Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who already switched from the Democrats to the Republicans is no longer in the Senate. His seat is now filled by Democrat Ken Salazar.
I think the Democrats will take around 20 new House seats without fraud, and 5 Senate seats. Republicans will say we rigged the House. Democrats will say Republicans rigged the Senate. Bush will say he's grateful to god for retaining all three houses of Congress, the House, the Pinta and the Senate Maria, proving that the American people want him to have absolute, unchecked power, as the Constitution says.
Posted by Liveliest Crib at November 6, 2006 03:51 PMHouse: A net Republican pickup of 3
Senate: A net Republican pickup of 1
What else to expect when the fix is in?
Posted by idlex at November 6, 2006 03:52 PMJust a note to say thanks to the left coasters for the fine work in the last two years and particularly in the lead-up to the election. May the collective Karma of the blogsphere bring rich rewards tomorrow night...
Posted by Mickey at November 6, 2006 03:52 PMHis seat is now filled by Democrat Ken Salazar.
That's Ken 'Nighthorse' Salazar...
Same song, different verse.
Posted by Davis X. Machina at November 6, 2006 03:59 PMHouse + 41, Senate +6.
Bubbles don't un-pop. This country decided nine months ago it is tired of Junta Boy, and the election -- lord don't ask me how, because the Dems didn't do it -- has become a referendum on the Monarchy
Posted by Davis X. Machina at November 6, 2006 04:01 PMYou can bet that Karl has concocted a voter suppression “cocktail.”
1. Diebold
2. RoboCalls
3. Ballot “mistakes”
4. Computer malfunctions
4. A million other little creative creations
This is a must see video:
http://www.truthdig.com/ avbooth/ item/ 20061105_gore_vidal_the_most_important_election_in_my_lifetime/
Ahhhh. We'll see tomorrow. No predictions here. Hope, but no predicitons.
Posted by phidipides at November 6, 2006 04:29 PM
Senate: Democrats +6
House: Democrats +26
That's if the voters do their job and turn out.
Posted by Craig at November 6, 2006 04:34 PMWhat if they swear in some R losers following the Bilbray precedent
Sitting congresscritter X (R-wherever), loses re-election and challenges the result; he gets sworn in and the courts won't intervene because the house is the final judge of the qualifications of his members. Presumably they could rinse and repeat this enough times to maintain the majority.
The uncontested members of next January's House will determine whom of the contested members are actually seated.
Bilbray was anointed prematurely because his contested election was a special election....
Brian,
That only works for by-elections. A sitting congress can only judge the credentials of its own members. When the new congress meets in january, it will determine its members credentials.
Posted by herbal tee at November 6, 2006 04:51 PMoh all right, if it is a legit election, only if, 36 and 6
Posted by oldtree at November 6, 2006 05:31 PM+27, +6.
I am afraid nothing will change for our soldiers in Iraq for the next 2 years.
The dems will use bush the obstructionist to win the white house in 08. Half-hearted attempts to get out until then.
Posted by TIKI AL at November 6, 2006 05:34 PMHouse: 14
Senate: 3
Looking ahead, even with both houses, the Democrats can only propose an alternate future. That's why the 100 hours program is important. Let Bush veto popular legislation, his whole party will be toxic by 2008.
The future can begin tomorrow. But the seeds cannot fully blossom until 2009.
Posted by herbal tee at November 6, 2006 05:46 PMI'm a little freaked about what kind of House bills the repukes will try to jam through from Nov. until Jan. (If Dems the win.)
Posted by Seven of Six at November 6, 2006 05:47 PMThe glass is half empty, cracked, and leaking toxic water, lunar chiroptera?
Posted by TIKI AL at November 6, 2006 05:48 PMHouse: 28
Senate: 6
Jackpot
Posted by chompiz at November 6, 2006 05:49 PMThe passive acceptance of Diebold vote switching software, Diebold inadequate security, RoboCalls
Computer hacking and other dirty tricks is sad.
If bloggers on this thread aren't willing to stand up and fight, who will?
Posted by smooth at November 6, 2006 05:49 PMNo predictions here either. Tomorrow will be a day of anxiety and worry, hope and prayer. I also see tomorrow as the day that we begin to take back our Country.
Sweet dreams to all my fellow liberals. Get a good night sleep, for tomorrow will be a very long day.
Posted by Judith at November 6, 2006 06:02 PMSweet dreams to you too, Judith.
The polls here in New York open at 6am and don't close until 9pm. We're volunteering to drive people to their polling place after working all day.
Pizza and wings after 9pm and we're likely to be up till 1am Wednesday morning. A very, very long day.
Posted by Christopher at November 6, 2006 06:15 PMno predictions..i just want the house for now..and i think we have it..it is the peoples forum..and we can investigate what has happened..the senate would be gravy..the beginning of the end of a very long nightmare that is gwbush
Posted by dennis at November 6, 2006 06:35 PMIraq, Iraq, Iraq overwhelms voter suppression.
Senate - six seat gain
House- 32 seat gain
Dems are the majority!
Posted by cmpnwtr at November 6, 2006 06:48 PMWhat worries me is that Lieberman switches parties and Cheny is the tie breaker. Of course, there may be a Repub or 2 that may switch also......
Posted by s at November 6, 2006 07:03 PMDems take 3 net in the Senate, House plus 12 net
From Democracy Corps...
GENERIC BALLOT. Republicans have cut the margin from down 11 (41-52) last week to down only four (45-49) this morning.
PARTY IMAGE. Democracy Corps shows that Republicans have a better image rating than Democrats for the first time since early September. From their last poll, Republicans’ favorable/unfavorable ratio had improved a net-5 points while Democrats dropped a net-4 points.
HANDLING OF ISSUES. A big reason for Republican gains is that trust on key issues has increased over the past few weeks. Built on recent good economic news, Republicans handling on the economy has improved a net-9 points from a week ago. Republicans have also seen significant gains on handling of taxes (+7), Iraq (+7) and national security (+4).
GOP CAMPAIGNS MAKING IMPACT. Another significant reason for Republican gains can be found in the GOP’s 72-hour get out the vote program which is now in full swing. This poll showed that Republicans have made a greater impact than Democrats with TV ads (+6), mailings (+6), and phone calls (+6).
Carville and Greenberg say it. Confirming the trifecta of polls over the weekend. Fox, CNN, Time, Newsweek are all wrong. A wimper of a wave. Participation is up by the numbers of early voting. Numbers indicate higher GOP activity than Dems. Some bad GOP'ers may fall tommorrow, individuals not the party. Some very nice GOP'ers will get elected, great men. Many conservatives from both parties will get elected. Phid, you hear that, conservative Democrats as well as conservative Republicans will rule the day. If, per the people, Democrats take the House, remember the conservative bent the House will have. Coalitions along conservative lines to pass conservative legislation. No folks, if you win, I will not say you've cheated to win. The people have spoken for this years election. So be it.
Viva the people!!!
Posted by peter at November 6, 2006 07:09 PMOn the GOP payroll to the very end I see. Enjoy your blood money, scumbag.
Posted by TIKI AL at November 6, 2006 07:21 PMBoy, see who we associate with here...Tiki. I make a concession and get called names. Now you see why W will not apologize at all. He gets called names now, what would y'all call him after an apology. No need to apolgize to Tiki.
Posted by peter at November 6, 2006 07:36 PMGuess the bag fits.
Posted by TIKI AL at November 6, 2006 07:38 PMSenate 4
House 28-30
I think the surge will show in the house races. I would love to see 35 in the house, don't know if it's possible with the gerrymandering, vote suppression etc. I am still very nervous that it could be 3 in senate and 13 in the house with a lot of question about the vote count.
This is going to be a long 24 hours.
Posted by angel at November 6, 2006 07:43 PMKeith Olberman is reporting on the scumbags making robocalls. The DNC is going to pursue this in the states where it is illegal and it may end up costing the RNC $500 per call.
Posted by TIKI AL at November 6, 2006 07:51 PMThings look a little tighter in Michigan. Seems like history might repeat itself the same way it did when Democrats won in 2000. Two new state leaders are on the menu here folks, two switches. Well maybe not, we'll see soon won't we.
Posted by peter at November 6, 2006 08:17 PMLook at that, Bill Clinton, ALGORE, Sen. Obama all in Maryland to help Cardin. Must be so afraid of losing this one. The black vote might find someone that actually listens to them. Someone that delivers for them. Democrats just want their votes, thats all they want. The rest of the time they're none existent.
Go Steele go!!!
Posted by peter at November 6, 2006 08:25 PMTomorrow will be a day of anxiety and worry, hope and prayer.
Don't be anxious and don't worry, Judith. If I could, I would go to the chimpanzee exhibit at the St. Louis Zoo and marvel at how they all -each and every one of those apes- look exactly like the chimporer!
Things will be just fine.
remember the conservative bent
You mean spending like a drunken sailor and making more passes at young men than Oscar Wilde, then covering it up? No, that's an odd form of republi-con behavior that you call conservatism.
Coalitions along conservative lines to pass conservative legislation.
And a conservative impeachment. How dood!
Posted by phidipides at November 6, 2006 08:27 PMI think it might be $1000 per call in NH; even at $500, it's hundreds of thousands of calls.
I like the judge in NM who ruled that repugs can only call repugs. A nationwide rule like that could put an end to this shit, but bankrupting the NRCC will work too.
The Democratic Party already is bankrupt. Dean's taking a surplus just two years ago to a deficit today. Bankrupt of ideas, "just vote against Bush". That's all I hear from you people. That and the "either we win or you cheated" line.
Posted by peter at November 6, 2006 08:49 PMDemocrats just want their votes, thats all they want.
And it's working!
While Bush and Cheney have appeared for Smith, he's seen some prominent local Republicans desert his campaign. Irene Abernethy, a life-long Republican who once chaired a campaign for a Republican incumbent in the district, said she and other Republicans are switching support to the Democrat this year.
Abernethy, an 81-year-old former teacher, said she laments the Republican Party's ``obsession with issues that make no difference in everyday lives,'' such as abortion and gay marriage. `It seems like the far right has taken over the party,'' she said.
Of course, we know the greatest fear of you republi-cons is (loud organ crescendo) gay abortion!
Lots of Republicans are going to vote tomorrow, just not for republi-cons.
A nationwide rule like that could put an end to this shit, but bankrupting the NRCC will work too.
Just like the SPLC took out the KKK.
Posted by phidipides at November 6, 2006 08:50 PMHouse 41
Senate 7
Saadam Hussein sentenced to death by hanging, which in Iraq comes under natural circumstances.
.....Jon Stewert
Dems +30 in the House, +9 governors, +8 in the Senate, counting the defeat of the CfL incumbent. (Yes, +8. Pederson over Kyl is the Upset Special)
Posted by Brian J. at November 7, 2006 01:52 AMPosted by peter at November 6, 2006 08:49 PM,
The Democratic Party already is bankrupt. Dean's taking a surplus just two years ago to a deficit today.
You're conflating the leader of DNC with that guy who illegally resides in our White House.
Bankrupt of ideas, "just vote against Bush". That's all I hear from you people.
To whom of us people are you listening?
That and the "either we win or you cheated" line.
You know, I believe there is a principle of corporate management named after you, Peter. And you appear already to have lived up to your name. You've been promoted to your level of incompetence - troll.
House +31
Senate +6 (Tester, Webb, Brown, Casey, Whitehouse, McCaskill, plus Lamont)
I hope I'm not too late to the party:
Here are my 6 pickups for the Dems and the vote splits
Rhode Island - 51-49
Virginia - 52-48
Missouri - 52-48
Montana - 51-49
Pennsylvania - 58-42
Ohio - 54-46
Dems hold:
Maryland - 52-48
New Jersey - 53-47
I'm not sure I trust the polling in House races, but if it is accurate, the Dems should pick up 45(+/-5) seats.
GOP keeps the House and the Senate. Democrats will cry foul, file lawsuits, demand Do-Over and insist that the rest of us Just Don't Get It. WE GET IT... WE JUST DON'T WANT IT! Once again... all the examples of Voter Fraud, given by the left, only shows that some people are just too damn stupid to vote.
Posted by ethan at November 7, 2006 09:25 AMMy predictions....
IF (and that is a big IF) there is minimal voting machine problems and vote counting fraud in states that the Rethuglicans "Must Win," we might have the following result..
House....Democrats pick up 52 seats
Senate....Democrats pick up 9
But we'll see how far off I am...
But if both Houses of the Congress remain in Rethuglican hands tomorrow morning...
It's civil war time anearing....
Posted by Yourworstnightmare at November 7, 2006 11:55 AMHouse +27 Democrats
Senate +5 Democrats*
Governors +7 Democrats
* Individually, I'm predicting Democrats will win 6 Senate seats, but as a group I figure one won't turn out the right way.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at November 7, 2006 12:36 PM