The WH is worried about the increasing Iranian influence which they enabled. They (Bushco) will then strike, causing $100-$200 per barrel oil costs and crushing the US and world economy. Thus completing the descent of the US into a pariah nation (because these guys are batsh*t crazy and will use nukes). And it will work for them because the compliant media here will "rally around the flag" and not delve into the issues at all.
Posted by Literalreddy at January 20, 2007 08:58 AMThank you for the post. Unfortunately, we have a trigger happy Commander in Chief who may not have the patience for stratigic pressure.
As horrific a potential as this creates, I'm equally worried about the Chinese ability to strike satellites. Without the satellites, not just the military flies blind...
Posted by mainsailset at January 20, 2007 09:00 AMIf the Surge fails, Bush will need a new war because he is the War President. If the Surge succeeds, if only in appearance (i.e. Sadr pulls his army off the streets and waits it out) Bush can say his strategy is working and buy enough time to finish out his term, with the US Forces still in Iraq, for training of course. However, if the decision to invade/attack Iran has been made, the Surge is simply a means of beginning it. Bush has to move fast in either case before the public/Congress can figure out how to stop him.
Posted by T2 at January 20, 2007 09:01 AMThank God we are doing something really stupid, like you know...actually talking to the Iranians about what's going on.
Its always soo much more interesting and fun to act like we are in a Clancy novel.
Bush has to move fast in either case before the public/Congress can figure out how to stop him.
Well, one way to get the troops out of Iraq is to move them to Iran. It'll be like Afghanistan, and likely work as well. I personally think we'll know when we're attacking because we'll get news reports of Osama being spotted in Tehran having tea with Ahmadinejad.
Of course, just as in Iraq there is that contingent of Iranians who would support the United States in this adventure. And just as in Iraq, when Iran blows up they will take their assets and move to Jordan.
At 4 times the size of Iraq and with a population of 70 million people, the Mad King's adventure in the PNAC wonderland of Iran should be interesting.
Posted by phidipides at January 20, 2007 09:43 AMJust as in Iraq, Commander Codpiece has a plan, and nothing will stop his plan. I'm sure the State-of-the-Union speech will be about how Iran has become a dark and gathering threat. Feel more safe now???????
Posted by Judith at January 20, 2007 10:22 AMReuters carried the story about the scope of the plans for Iran indicating "it is not a surgical strike".
I has occurred to me that Bush thinks this is all high stakes poker bluff (or as Condi says, to make "Iran and Syria change their behavior" and come to the negotiating table). But if that is what Bush thinks, he has been led to this position by Cheney, and Condi is just playing along pretending to actually be in charge of of the "talks" track while the military is marching along the "threats" track.
It would be easy to say Cheney wants the war to get a surge in oil prices for his buddies and himself. The shock of a war would cause a spike in them, but Iran's oil contribution is widely regarded as minor, so a spike based on actual supply-shortages might be short-lived. A spike owing to the change in attitude toward the US by the entire world? That is something else again.
I have been among those who believed since the first carrier movements toward the Gulf months ago (and Sy Hersh's reports about Rumsfeld's Pentagon back in the spring-summer) that the Iran card would be played out before Bush left office.
I continue to support the idea that a massive protest in the streets is the next best thing to out-and-out impeachment beginning now. The idea that the Dems need to avoid a potential backlash--blah-blah-blah is fecklessness. Right now, the Dems are in deed of spinal reinforcement if they intend to stop an Executive who continues to ignore the weaker Branches and widen the scope of Middle Eastern conflict. Impeach or hit the streets. You know Bush and Cheney won't listen. The Dems and come-to-sanity Republicans will.
Posted by gtash at January 20, 2007 10:38 AMThe strategic value of Iran vis-a-vis oil is this:
quote
The greatest danger to the Persian Gulf oil flow is now said to emanate from Iran, which has threatened to choke off all oil shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz (the narrow passageway at the mouth of the Gulf) in the event of an American air assault on its nuclear facilities. In possible anticipation of such a move, the Pentagon recently ordered additional air and naval forces into the Gulf and replaced General John Abizaid, the Centcom Commander, who favored diplomatic engagement with Iran and Syria, with Admiral William Fallon, the Commander of the Pacific Command (Pacom) and an expert in combined air and naval operations. Fallon arrived at Centcom just as President Bush, in a nationally televised speech on January 10, announced the deployment of an additional carrier battle group to the Gulf and warned of harsh military action against Iran if it failed to halt its support for insurgents in Iraq and its pursuit of uranium-enrichment technology.
end quote (from Alternet-Oil Based Fascism)
Posted by gtash at January 20, 2007 10:50 AMThank God we are doing something really stupid, like you know...actually talking to the Iranians about what's going on.
cell, condi says that would give them a PR victory, which is more valuable than thousands of dead americans (and millions of brown people, if it comes to that.)
Posted by benjoya at January 20, 2007 12:54 PM"well," not "cell" (and sorry for leaving out the itals - 1st graph was simp's)
Posted by benjoya at January 20, 2007 12:56 PMalso, some idiot R last night kept repeating " well, we can all agree iran is helping the death squads" no, we can't agree -- there's as little evidence for that as there was for saddam's WMD.
Posted by benjoya at January 20, 2007 12:57 PMPresident Bush is playing the same kind of game that FDR played with Japan during Pearl Harbor. FDR knew that the Japs were planning to launch a military strike (although he didn't know precisely when and where) and he deliberately let our guard down. It was like a boxer who deliberately exposes his body to the blows of his opponent so as to set up a devastating knockout counterpunch. And it worked brilliantly: American public opinion, which had been previously timid and isolationist, was galvanized into action to undertake the titanic struggle to make the US the leading superpower on Earth.
At the current time the US is having a similar crisis of confidence and needs a similar shock to the system to regain our will to power.
Ha-Ha, now that's a Bush cultist! More absurd nonsense from the right wing internet shit troughs.
Posted by euzoius at January 20, 2007 02:02 PM
We're about to see things start rolling in the Persian Gulf. To hit Iran, we need 3 carrier groups. One is there, one is en route, and there's going to be a third one soon. The Nimitz is about ready to deploy and if it weren't going to the Gulf it would deploy to Japan in the spring to cover the Kitty Hawk while it undergoes repairs. Instead," the Pentagon announced 11 Jan 07 USS Ronald Reagan would skip normal work-up phases and deploy within several weeks to provide the routine coverage in western Pacific during Kitty Hawk's repairs.)" The Reagan just got back in mid-November and is post-deployed and usually it wouldn't go out again for a long while. Out of 10 carriers, the navy has 3 ready for action and they're clearly being lined up for the Indian Ocean. The Reagan is being rushed back and this is very unusual.
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/001879.php
The clock is ticking on the second Bush term.
If he's intent on invading and/or bombing Iran, or having our supplicants in the region like Israel do the deed, then Bush knows he needs to strike soon.
My guess is, the Democrats (Reid, Pelosi et al) will stomp their feet and give good face to the media, but at the end of the day, they will be helpless to prevent Bush from doing what he wants.
Posted by Christopher at January 20, 2007 02:47 PMThis will be one of the most nastiest races in recent memory:
http://www.enewsreference.com/archive/blog012007.shtml
Posted by eNews Reference at January 20, 2007 02:58 PMJohn Shreffler, thanks for the point on the Nimitz. I had seen reports of the Raegan filling in for the Kitty Hawk but had not seen anything about the Nimitz. If the Nimitz deploys, we are on the path to strike Iran. We will no longer just be seeing pressure applied.
Posted by Sam Gardiner at January 20, 2007 03:03 PMI wonder if the surge is for Iran and not Iraq?
Posted by littlejohnuk at January 20, 2007 03:04 PM
Oh, well, hey, while we're at it...Let me just toss something out there for some discussion....Before we do something fun and stupid in Iran...
How's things in the Taiwan Strait? Calm? Quiet?
No intrepid reporters willing to go take a peek at any military movements on the mainland? Anybody notice some uptick in tempo at Taiwan bases?
Anybody want to rent a Sanpan for some whalewatching?
Might see some interesting whales--and other sea creatures, to boot.
Posted by Springbored at January 20, 2007 03:16 PMAt the current time the US is having a similar crisis of confidence and needs a similar shock to the system to regain our will to power.
Will to power is incorrect. Will to death is more appropriate.
What you wish for is a debacle that makes Iraq look like a schoolyard scuffle. If Iran is hit it will start a series of events for which we are unprepared and truly have no will to complete. We'll either have to resort to nukes or pour blood into the sands of the Middle East. Either way, we risk engaging China and Russia, and when they start sending their technology in we will have some real problems.
China and Russia have our latest technology backwards engineered with likely countermeasures where they can develop them, all courtesy of Israel who sold our stuff to the highest bidder. The only thing they didn't get was that latest AWACS, we stopped them before the deal went through, but everything else they have...and I would assume that means second generation AWACS.
And isn't it lovely that under the republi-cons manufacturing of critical components for our missles, all of our missles, is now done in China, in total. If the Chinese enbargo those components we can't build them here because the facilities were crated-up and sent to China. I wonder what other defense technology is only manufactured offshore? Bush had a chance to stop this, but he bailed on his reponsibilities...as all republi-cons have a tendency to do.
Posted by phidipides at January 20, 2007 04:45 PMWill to power is incorrect. Will to death is more appropriate.
No, "will to power" is correct, a translation of the original "Der Wille zur Macht".
We'll either have to resort to nukes
Yes, and a good starting point for creative approaches in this direction can be found in the following article:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41771
If America makes the grievous error of attacking Iran, oil will shoot up to $90 a barrel and all of the world's economies will slide into severe recessions. Plus, you will see an insurgency that will make the one in Iraq pale by comparison.
Posted by TruthProbe at January 20, 2007 05:16 PMAt least 20 American service members were killed in military operations in Iraq Saturday - the deadliest day for U.S. forces in two years.
Thank goodness the Mofo from Midland is sending 21,500 more troops to replentish the quickening daily death totals of Americans.
Empire is such a deadly game.
Posted by Christopher at January 20, 2007 05:17 PManonymoose @ 01:43 PM,
I respectfully request that you apologize to the poster, commenters and readers of this thread for employing the bigoted and racist epithet "Japs" in your comment and retract the epithet.
A request to the website has been made to remove your comment and permanently ban you from commenting at this website if your apology and retraction are not made within 24 hours from the time of your comment or before comments close.
Thank you.
cc: Steve Soto
Posted by Pvt. Keepout at January 20, 2007 06:17 PMSo, already we are in mission creep before the mission officially begins. First it was Iran is a nuclear power-to-be and a WMD threat to the region. Then comes Fallon and Rice and the latest "Iran is supporting dangerous Shia insurgents in Iraq"---they are layering on a rationale for letting loose on Iran--promoting a threat out of all proportion to its "clear-and-present" criteria. If they so much as twitch (or if the US sponsors false-flag version of same), the Congress will do nothing.
The Administration is looking for a fight--again.
This Administration Wants War and it wants it NOW. Bigger war. Texas based Cowboy Shoot'm-up Black Hat-White Hat War.
Posted by gtash at January 20, 2007 06:18 PM
This northwestern part of Iran has been an area of high tension for a number of years. There have been quite reliable reports that the United States and Israel are supporting a Kurdish group that is actually conducting combat operations inside Iran. The Iranians have responded by firing artillery into Iraq.
It seems to me that Iran can benefit greatly from certain types of limited U.S. aggression against them, but only if they are perceived as largely blameless in the lead-up to said aggression. Don't they run the risk of giving the U.S. what it wants if they're firing artillery over the border into Iraq?
Posted by dj moonbat at January 20, 2007 06:25 PMNo, "will to power" is correct,
No, Thanatos is correct. "Will to power" in the fashion in which you use it leads to death. Your masculine protest is an expression of your desperate desire to be seen as assertive, aggressive, strong and in control. Yet you are none of these things. Your drive is to death and destruction.
Nietzche would agree that the posters here against the irrational aggression towards Iran are the ones excercising will to power, not you. You are the herd.
Yes, and a good starting point for creative approaches
I lived under MAD. When Kennedy was shot we were given a quick Duck-n-Cover drill, told the Russians were going to nuke us, and packed onto school buses full of screaming kids for the ride home.
The beauty of the article you cite is that that jackoff Atkins is so dense that he really thinks Muslim countries have WMDs that can get to us, and that we can then pull the trigger on the offending party. He, as well as you if you believe this fairy tale, is absolutely batshit mad. Your desire is to nuke the Sand Niggers. Nothing more.
Posted by phidipides at January 20, 2007 08:32 PMphidipides @ 08:32 PM,
I respectfully request that you apologize to the poster, commenters and readers of this thread for employing the bigoted and racist epithet "Sand Niggers" in your comment and retract the epithet.
A request to the website has been made to remove your comment and permanently ban you from commenting at this website if your apology and retraction are not made within 24 hours from the time of your comment or before comments close.
Thank you.
cc: Steve Soto
The beauty of the article you cite is that that jackoff Atkins is so dense that he really thinks Muslim countries have WMDs that can get to us, and that we can then pull the trigger on the offending party. He, as well as you if you believe this fairy tale, is absolutely batshit mad.
No, you have poor reading comprehension. The idea is that we won't play into these self-serving "good Muslim"/"bad Muslim" games any more. If you are a "good Muslim", then you need to prove it by standing up to the "bad Muslims". Otherwise you are practically indistinguishable from the "bad Muslims" and deserve to be treated as such.
Col. Gardiner,
Thank you for your insights into the evolving folly of TPAjax II. Your commentary and those of Chris Nelson as commented by John Shreffler @ 02:32 PM are invaluable open source intelligence to guide concerned citizens and authentic patriots in these perilous times.
Given that the focus of this potential tragedy involves nuclear weapons, I request you consider a future post on your appreciation of the effects of nuclear weapons, particularly long term radiation effects, in the following scenarios:
1. Preventive US/Israeli Nuclear Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities (Arak, Isfahan & Natanz).
2. Retaliatory US Nuclear Attack on 100 Muslim Cities Riposting WMD Terror Attack on US.
Again, Thank you for contributing your observations here and considering the above request.
Posted by Pvt. Keepout at January 20, 2007 09:40 PMFolks, I will second Pvt. Keepout's distaste here for racist slurs. If you cannot make your points free of bigoted language or slurs, then please go somewhere else.
Posted by Steve Soto at January 20, 2007 10:19 PMskull & bones is a templar lodge.
bush, upon the persuadings of his zionist allies, has delusions that he is the fidei defensor. the reincarnation of richard, couer[sic] de lion. he is intent upon recapturing the "holy land" from the new saladins.
the amerikan right has aligned itself with this crusade to eliminate islam. don't make the mistake of thinking otherwise.
this will be as unnecessary a war as the one that old honest[sic] abe energized against his countrymen/women.
it will cause the constitution to be shredded, with the approval of the federalist society supreme court. and it may even result in the implementation of a lincolnesque draft[if you can pay enough, you can buy your way out of service. in lincoln's time, the price was $300. with inflation, what do you think that price will be now? i think $100,000. but you economists are free to correct my computations].
the congress will become supine. because if they oppose this new, lincolnesque tyrant, they will be incarcerated in the halliburton camps. as were those congressmen who opposed lincoln's tyranny.
the press probably saw this coming some years ago. and that is why it decided to rejuvenate the lbj accords - lap dog subservience to the state.
the russians and the chinese recognize that bush intends to declare war on the world. that was why putin suspended some hydrocarbon deliveries to western europe. he was putting europe on notice - he could shut them down by closing just a few valves. in the winter, he could cause europe to freeze in the dark.
the chinese informed us of a technical mastery that was also intended to chill the warmongering usa. if the story is true, that china used a missile to take down a satellite, then they have mastered a technology that surpasses ours. and it was done to show the foolish gangster in our casa blanca that china can take out our nro satellites...
this is significant. this evil empire cannot conduct its command and control without those satellites. china has launched a shot across our bow, also.
but the dauphin will not be paying attention. his courtiers will continue to tell him that he is the most splendid monarch on the planet. and he is so psychopathically delusional, that he will believe them.
and the us military, well, it is the same bunch of dunces that have lost virtually every critical military conflict of the last 60 years.
lastly, when this war for the planet commences, the internet will be shut down.
but hey, i could be wrong.
Those who are members of The Brotherhood of Death (aka, Skull & Bones) are the most powerful group of people in this Country or the world for that matter. Their goal has always been to control the world's valuable resources and world domination. George seems himself as delivering that one ultimate goal to the power brokers.
Posted by Judith at January 21, 2007 05:23 AMThanks for strict moderation against racism, Steve. I automatically tune out the rest of the content in such posts because of the way they de-legitimize themselves.
My only disagreement with your response is I'd remove their comments at once and grant only an hour for any apology.
Posted by Kevin Hayden at January 21, 2007 07:23 AMThank you, Colonel Gardiner.
In Iraq, al-Sadr's instructed his militia to try and hold fire through their holy month. Between that and the Congressional Democratic resolutions to restrain Bush's hand, I figure the violence in Iraq will escalate the last week of February.
You speak from a military perspective. I try to analyze the political. And it seems to me that Americans are likely going to be aghast at the human costs by the end of March.
So, politically, Bush may be down to the last card in his hand to deflect criticism by then. I hope you'll still be posting here then, because I suspect the serious sabre-rattling - or physical confrontation - will begin by April.
Posted by Kevin Hayden at January 21, 2007 07:29 AMI respectfully request that you apologize to the poster,
If you wish to be the TLC PC Police, have at it. The idiocy of your comment is that you post as if I called anonymoose a "Sand Nigger". I most certainly did not, and you are a cad for even suggesting it. I suggest you apologize to me for your offense of cherry-picking words and terms from posts without placing them within their context. Where is your censure of terms and words like: "Bush cultist" and "Mofo from Midland". I can speak ad infinitum about the things that might be offensive to some, yet it appears you ignore these words and terms that can be hurtful to others in your quest to garner some litte support for your pollyanna desire to control the words I use.
Again, I suggest you attempt to place comments within the context in which they were written before you cry foul. I have heard the term "Nuking the Sand Niggers" used too frequently by the right to ignore it, and I throw it back at them as often as possible. That you are offended by it appears to be your problem.
I will continue to call the red state Bush supporters knuckle-dragging white trash crackers, and continue throwing-up to them the same language they use to describe others. And whether that includes "Sand Niggers" or not will depend on the context and to whom I am speaking, and it most certainly will not be the result of consideration for your feelings or your obsessive compulsive desire to cherry-pick words.
I have have read too many posts where back-woods red state knuckle-dragging white trash country fucks have indicated many negative things about homosexuality, even calling for our deaths. But I have never one time called for them to be banned for it.
You are simply a cad. Nothing more. I suggest you go fuck yourself.
Posted by at January 21, 2007 09:31 AMNo, you have poor reading comprehension.
No, I have a desireable form of reading comprehension in that I see the bullshit you propose for what it is. Bullshit.
You propose something they already know. That we can unilateraly obliterate them and they can do nothing about it. You also propose taking-out their major cities and military installations. That's just ducky. Osama had neither. And the great fallacy to your argument is that after 9-11 the Iranians wanted to talk and offered up portions of their nuclear program, and that mental midget Bush said "No". What you propose requires rationality, and that is not your ilks long-suit.
Posted by phidipides at January 21, 2007 10:04 AMYou are simply a cad. Nothing more. I suggest you go fuck yourself.
This post by phidipides.
Posted by phidipides at January 21, 2007 10:07 AMWait a minute, weren't the Kurds supposed to have decent relations with Iran? I remember from this raid recently on a diplomatic building where the US captured several Iranians...and I had read that the Iranians were there through their relations with the Kurds...
Posted by LACJ at January 22, 2007 08:29 AMCol.,
This is very interesting. Last week Global Security's "Where Are The Carriers?" table had only the Stennis and Nimitz as Surge Ready. Now Stennis is marked as Deployed and note how the Roosevelt and Truman have joined the Surge Ready list with the Reagan (already ordered to Japan) still listed as Post Deployed. They're building up to a sustainable 3 carrier fleet off of Iran. Any of the current 3 surge ready carriers should have gone out before the Reagan.