First we have stop the propaganda machine! Blitzer this week was continuing to talk about the Iranian IED's smuggled into Iraq that were killing Americans. Someone needs to refute the lies!
And when can we call the Administration's bluff and tell the public that by outing Plame they damaged our atomic spying effort on Iran?
When she testifies next week in front of congress?
Or will she be gagged also, or will it be a closed door session!
When I was a child, I lived on a dead end street with railroads tracks on a high and steep embankment at the end--it was Buffalo & great for sledding in the winter.
Some pre-teen boys used to play chicken by laying on the railroad tracks in front of oncoming trains. One lost a leg. I'd say he was lucky.
Posted by eCAHNomics at March 10, 2007 06:59 AMThis is an interesting commentary. However, I don't think this is a game of chicken but of the US pursuing either regime change or a change in Iranian policy to meet US demands. The US is not just setting up the military and psychological conditions for an attack against Iran it is also working to foment unrest among various disaffected groups within Iran many of whom use terrorist methods.
http://kenthink7.blogspot.com/
Sam,
It feels that way to me too. Lots of press about how the Cheney Neo-Cabal who were pushing for regime change are now out of the loop. The trigger issue is key. There are all kinds of provocations either made or in play which the Neo-Cons mean to provoke the Iranians into going for their gun. If the Iranians do that, then the boom is in place to be lowered on them. In that case, the DOD opposition to war (Gates and, amazingly Gen. Pace) would vanish. So the game's not over yet. Cheney may have left a trap.
Posted by John Shreffler at March 10, 2007 07:45 AMThere is a persistent (and wrong) belief in "the military option" in the US. The military is glorified and diplomats are sissies, don't ya know?
We're in another political season with the leading Dem candidates calling for more action against Iran. AIPAC will have them in deep lather against the Repubs at election time if a few cruise missiles aren't lobbed into Iran by then. Plus CPAC will be all over the Repub candidates. Clinton sent cruise missiles into a pharmaceutical factory in the Sudan when he was knee-deep in Monica; Bush/Cheney will see a similar action against Iran as a no-brainer, for which they are fully qualified.
As if the US needed another reason, the Air Force and Navy are chafing for action. They've been pretty much cut out of Iraq and so are suffering budget and personnel cutbacks, with many air force and navy personnel in ground roles in Iraq. New weapons systems need to be tested. "Turn us loose" they say, even though the army is against widening the war.
The wild card now is this Iranian general that's defected with documents of Iran's support for Hezbollah. This has potential to be the new "yellowcake" cause for war. The PR campaign around this will be a sight, I'm sure.
So the US is more cocksure than chicken. War is a racket and we are represented by racketeers.
Posted by Don Bacon at March 10, 2007 08:03 AMSam,
I notice that you don't use your military title. That tells me a lot about you, on several levels. All good.
Posted by Don Bacon at March 10, 2007 08:13 AMI hope you're right, 'cause I hate it when I am. There are far too many "coincidences".
Posted by Thomas Ware at March 10, 2007 08:24 AMNew weapons systems need to be tested.
Don, doing Iran will be easy. You just loosen them up with the Air Force, the Navy supplies some support from the Gulf, and it's all over in a short time. It will be as easy as Israel using our advanced technology to destroy Hezbollah. The Israeli air force softened them up, the Israeli navy was attacked and Hezbollah blew up bunches of Israeli tanks accounting for the majority of Israeli troop deaths....
Something is wrong with my analysis... Hmmmm... "The Iranians will greet us with flowers. This may take 6 days or 6 weeks, but surely not longer than 6 months."
There we go. Everything is nice and tidy. It's difficult to overcome the delusions these people have. They are convinced that Iraq is going quite well, when all indicators outside of the noise machine point to an ongoing tragedy. Irrationality rules in this administration. No amount of "facts" or logic will ever dissuade them, largely owing to their ability to believe the "facts" they made-up and the logic that only corporate warmongers and imperialists understand.
Posted by phidipides at March 10, 2007 08:31 AMFrom DefenseNews.com: The initial strike could come from stealth Air Force fighters and bombers and cruise missiles launched from B-52Hs, Navy submarines and surface warships. The attacks could center on command-and-control centers, anti-aircraft sites and other targets that pose a threat to follow-on strikes by nonstealth bombers and fighters. The Air Force bombers could fly nonstop from their home bases in the United States, while Air Force fighters would have to be launched from bases within the region. The Air Force already has fighters based in Iraq, Afghanistan and along the western Arabian Gulf. The Air Force and Navy bombs, like the cruise missiles, would all be precision-guided in an effort to minimize unnecessary deaths and collateral damage at dual-use facilities or those located amid civilian populations.
But Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan: Over the past several years, Iran has purchased Sunburn, C-801 and C-802 Silkworm antiship cruise missiles, fast attack missile boats and naval mine warfare capabilities. The Sunburn anti-ship missile can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or a 750-pound conventional warhead within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes "violent end maneuvers" to elude enemy defenses. The C-801 anti-ship cruise missile is a Chinese version of the popular French made EXOCET anti-ship cruise missile, the second generation of antiship missiles developed by China. The C-801 can be air-launched and is carried on missile speedboats, submarines, escort boats, and destroyers, and is used to attack destroyers or escort boats. The C-802 “Silkworm” missile was used against the United States escort vessel U.S.S. Stark, causing the death of 37 sailors. It was recently used by Hezbollah in the Israeli-Lebanon war to cripple the Israeli missile boat Hanit in the Meditarranean Sea. The high-tech, anti-ship missile is tough to shoot down, partly because it flies only 20 feet above the water, making it hard to spot by radar. Iran has sophisticated EM-53 bottom-tethered mines, which it purchased from China in the 1990s. The EM-53 presents a serious threat to major U.S. surface vessels, since its rocket-propelled charge is capable of hitting the hull of its target at speeds in excess of 70 miles per hour. Iran also has the newly acquired, Russian-made TOR M-1 surface-to-air defense shield, and other weapons systems too numerous to mention.
Posted by Don Bacon at March 10, 2007 08:49 AMFrom DefenseNews.com:
The other major factor is the will of the Iranian people. They see and hear the stories of struggle and hardship in Iraq that we don't see and hear. They know that the promises to rebuild and bringing democracy are lies, and that their collective lives would be much worse under U.S. occupation.
Posted by phidipides at March 10, 2007 08:59 AMOfftopic, but this is hot: House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-Wis.) berated a Marine mom who approached him in a Congressional corridor, claiming that “idiot liberals” don’t understand the war supplemental spending bill process. “We’re trying to use the supplemental to end the war,” Obey said. “You can’t end the war if you’re going against the supplemental. It’s time these idiot liberals understood that.”
Video on youtube or here.
Posted by Don Bacon at March 10, 2007 09:21 AMI suppose Iran and associates will be manning the rowboats (ala USS Cole).
The US certainly wastes a lot of money on last century weaponry.
Posted by Alex at March 10, 2007 09:23 AMI grew up in a world exhausted by war (post-WW2), and ostensibly willing to try yet again at being human. It sort of lasted a while, long enough to create a strong US middle class - that sadly didn't know what to do with its fortune and turned to Rush Limbaugh for its emotional needs - and to give me and my siblings a quality public education.
I thought it was how the world was, but alas, the madmen were just taking a break, regrouping, when I was growing up in the late 50s and 60s and 70s and all the civil rights, antiwar, women, gay movements were happening. What made the madmen hate these things so, define themselves by the hatred, think of it in every act?
I truly would love to see a ninety year old Richard Nixon looking at his disciples as they ostensibly try to rectify and complete his vision of law and order and winning vietnam. I bet even Tricky would say, "stop, stop, give it up, stop it already."
sorry to ramble
The US certainly wastes a lot of money on last century weaponry.
Alex, you got that right. The crippling of that Israeli ship in the Med by the Hezbollah partisans are a giant indicator of "Fourth Generation Warfare" that the US doesn't have a clue about. For example the Chinese don't have the expense of ten nuclear carrier groups, they have a military strategy of "swarming" relatively low-cost cruise missiles, torpedoes and drone aircraft against a naval fleet unable to cope with the shear magnitude of the "swarm." Also the Chinese don't need expensive satellites to compete with the US--they just need to be able to destroy US satellites, which they recently demonstrated. Then there was that Chinese diesel submarine that recently surfaced undetected five miles away from our Pacific fleet. There were lots of red-faced admirals after that one. Of course China has a defensive doctrine not an offensive one like the US.
(Talk about red faces, the new F-22's that the air force flew to Okinawa lost all their on-board systems (except the engines, thankfully) when they crossed the international dateline. Really.)
Do you think that there might be Chinese military advisors in Iran right now? You betcha.
Posted by Don Bacon at March 10, 2007 10:07 AMSharkbabe - good "ramble." While all conflicts link to the past, WWI and WWII are the substrate of most conflicts since then. We may now be long past the tipping point and "peace" before larger and more deadly conflicts only the distant dream of the real pragmatists that were rejected in favor of the warmongers dressed up as pragmistists.
Posted by Marie at March 10, 2007 10:31 AMI feel sorry for those squids already.
It's going to be a dog's breakfast; like everything else Cheney's done.
The Eisenhower was deployed to the region last October which means that it's strike force is due to leave by April. The Reagan Strike force is forward deployed in Japan, supposedly backing up the Kitty Hawk which is "dry docked" for $65M in retrofits.
Beware the Ides of March. I truly expect the Eisenhower to fire itself dry before returning to base. I really hope I'm wrong.
Posted by shirt at March 10, 2007 10:51 AM"Take regime change off the table".
So simple. So reasonable. So pragmatic.
With AIPAC, so impossible.
Reckless George: The Final Act.
Posted by euzoius at March 10, 2007 10:51 AMDave Johnson has a piece up that says soldiers in Iraq are now having their rations cut and must sign out by individual rounds for their ammo - and they are being told that it is because the Dems in Congress have cut their funding. He's asking for people to contact relatives and friends in country to see if this is a valid story or not. Disturbing.
http://seeingtheforest.com/
Posted by mainsailset at March 10, 2007 10:56 AMThe new WMD-- "uranium arms"
US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad: "But the first point to make to them [Iran] is that they need to stop arms — uranium arms — coming across the border, being used against the coalition forces. At the same time, for them not to support militias who are undermining the stability of Iraq and increasing problems."
http://www.abcnews.go.com/GMA/IraqCoverage/story?id=2937459
The "sovereign" Iraqis have a different view.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari Friday paid tribute to Iran's positive role in supporting settlement of his country's issues. "Iran has a vital role in resolution of Iraq's problems and it has always played a constructive and positive part in easing our nation's sufferings," he told the visiting Iranian delegation.
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-234/0703091111235456.htm
Posted by Don Bacon at March 10, 2007 11:19 AMI think Sam got a fact wrong here. I thought there were two -- not one -- two amphibious groups (basically, Marine carrier groups) in the area.
Also, I'm not comforted by an April pull-out date for the Eisenhower, nor anymore alarmed than I already am that they will pull the trigger. That could easily be extended a couple months. Hit 'em in April, May, June, whenever. The capability is there. I don't think the Reagan will come over to the Persian Gulf, either. It'll stay put in the Pacific. I'd think they'd send another one. If I'm not mistaken, there's two or three other Nimitz-class carriers ready for a surge deployment, if the masters of war choose to do that.
I'm with Don Bacon, too. Although, the Sunburns and Silkworms don't scare me much, nor Russian cavitation torpedoes, in terms of not wanting our Fifth Fleet to get sunk. That stuff is expensive, and I doubt Iran has that many of them. It's the not-so-high-tech Iranian versions of older Exocets (sp?) that worry me. Chinese Sunburns? How many do they really have? Homegrown, reverse-engineered versions of a technology that's a couple decades' old? I have no doubt Iran has mastered and is able to build all that they want, and probably launch them from any damn platform they desire. Aegis, Phalanx and anything else the U.S. Navy has would be overwhelmed by hundreds if not thousands of those. Fourth Generation, indeed.
mainsailset, blaming the Dems in Congress (which is a lie, by the way)? I wouldn't be surprised. Nothing the Republicans do surprises me anymore.
Posted by Brian Bell at March 10, 2007 11:58 AMI guess this means the shoeshine boy, "Colon" Powell, will be recalled to Sec of State Emeritus duty to go back to the UN for another finger-wagging presentation about Iran.
Posted by Alex at March 10, 2007 01:10 PMThe only thing Iran needs is an EMP (electro magnetic pulse) weapon, and then the playing field is more level.
Plus they have rowboats.
How will the Bush and the Reps spin this loss?
It's prolly time to disband the US military in its current form anyway. Too expensive. Out-of-date. Too redundant.
And kick all the defense contractors & consultants to the curb. You could prolly cut 2/3s of the military budget by doing that.
Bring back the War Department as it was under Truman.
Posted by Alex at March 10, 2007 01:16 PMStrategic Chicken continues even after a first incident. I viewed on TNT a few nights ago the movie (Morgan Freeman and Ben Afflec) "The Sum of All Fears" about a nuclear explosion set off in the US by a group intent on bringing the US and the Soviet Union to full scale nuclear war.
The point of the movie's climax was that advisors on both sides were urging their leadership to move to ever higher levels of response - to the point where US bombers were on the way and missles poised to launch - to ensure that that we didn't look 'weak'.
Any incident could set off the same type of response in DC and Tehran, each escalating at the other's last move.
I personally believe that BushCo is intent on creating the initial incident so they can then escalate to full attack. Israel seems to be pushing this approach, and AIPAC is fighting to remove a prohibition from the Dem. supplemental appropriations bill to limit Bush's options somewhat on attacking Iran.
As Sam suggests in his post, with an incident that Bush can use to trigger a response, no action of the Congress in advance would limit Bush, and that appears to be the logic of the Chicken War.
Posted by JimPortlandOR at March 10, 2007 01:30 PMIsrael, is the enemy.
Posted by Thomas Ware at March 10, 2007 05:22 PM