Tuesday :: Feb 3, 2004

Latest Polls

by Steve

With many contests today, several candidates are grasping for any good news that would keep them in the race. As the Kerry campaign hopes for several more wins by the end of the day, it is not clear if his attempt to knock out John Edwards will fail, but it is also yet not clear if Wesley Clark will win his necessary victory in Oklahoma.

Likely Kerry Wins Today

Missouri: Both American Research Group and Zogby have Kerry with wide leads in the main prize today of Missouri, with ARG showing Kerry with a thirty-one point lead over Edwards (46%-15%), and Zogby showing a much harder to believe 56%-17% spread. According to Survey USA, Kerry is at 44%, with Edwards at 20% and Howard Dean at 15%.

Arizona: ARG has Kerry with a 32%-21% lead over Clark in a state that both Clark and Lieberman wanted badly. Zogby has Kerry with 42%, Clark with 28%, and Dean with 15%, but Survey USA has it much closer at Kerry 34%, Clark 28%, and Dean 18%.

Delaware: ARG has Kerry at 27% over Joe Lieberman (16%) and Dean (14%), but Survey USA has Kerry with a commanding 42% over the rest of the pack, all bunched back between 9% and 12% of the vote.

South Carolina

Now it gets interesting. According to ARG, Edwards has 31% to Kerry’s 24%. And Survey USA has a blowout for Edwards, with 34% to Kerry’s distant 17% and Clark’s 16%. But take a look at the surge for Kerry that Zogby is showing, where Edwards according to Zogby’s last poll now has only a four-point lead over Kerry (36%-32%).


The must-win for Wesley Clark, Zogby shows a heated battle between Clark (31%), and the surging Kerry (29%) and Edwards (26%). Survey USA also has a tough three-way battle between Clark (29%), Edwards (27%), and Kerry (26%). ARG has it at Clark 28%, Kerry 25%, and Edwards at 21%.

So it is likely that Kerry will pick up at least three states today. But the real drama tonight will center on South Carolina and Oklahoma, because Edwards and Kerry are in play in both states, with Clark needing a victory in Oklahoma to claim future viability. And Joe Lieberman should be finished after tonight. As for Dean, having already played down the expectations game in today's contests, losses are not necessarily lethal and he is still raising thousands every day on the Internet. But with the rest of the pack getting all the headlines, can he make a stand and resonate in Michigan and Wisconsin?

Steve :: 7:23 AM :: Comments (2) :: Digg It!