Wednesday :: Aug 17, 2005

Latest State-by-State Approval Ratings Give Bush Only 79 Safe Electoral Votes In His Base

by Steve

I'm sure the GOP's likely 2008 candidates and their vulnerable 2006 incumbents will love to see this. Tell me why again the Beltway Democrats are so scared of a political team that has managed to turn 282 electoral votes into only 79 EVs in less than a year?

Only eight months into his second term, and George W. Bush finds his “base” to consist of only 10 states, according to a new national summary by Survey USA of Bush’s state-by-state approval ratings. There are only ten states in the country where Bush’s approval rating exceeds his disapproval rating, according to polls this month Survey USA, and another two states, North Carolina and Louisiana, where his approval and disapproval ratings are the same. These kind of numbers portend bad thingss for the GOP's 2006 candidates in many of these states, and will also cause problems for the GOP's presidential hopes in 2008.

The ten states where Bush still maintains an approval rating greater than his disapproval rating are below, as well as the spread.

Alabama (+7%)
Idaho (+23%)
Mississippi (+2%)
Montana (+5%)
Nebraska (+13%) (We’ll have to cut Nelson some slack)
North Dakota (+6%)
Oklahoma (+4%)
Texas (+11%)
Utah (+19%)
Wyoming (+20%)

Those states accounted for only 79 electoral votes in 2004. If you want more eye-opening numbers, take a look at how things look right now for Bush in Missouri (-20%), Ohio (-23%), Virginia (-10%), Iowa (-13%), Kentucky (-11%), Nevada (-17%), New Mexico (-15%), and Florida (-9%). These are all states Bush claimed in the red column just ten months ago, and gives you an idea of how the Democrats, with the right candidate, could recapture these key states, especially the border states like Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia in 2008.

Doesn’t look much like a political realignment anymore, does it?

(thanks to a tip from Ga6thDem)

Steve :: 1:48 PM :: Comments (21) :: TrackBack (1) :: Digg It!